The New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and the Russian Federation, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. Without a new agreement, it marks the first time since the early 1970s that there will be no legally binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear forces, potentially leading to an unconstrained arms race.
Iran is reportedly strengthening security and renovating structures at its Isfahan nuclear complex, according to satellite imagery analysis by the Institute for Science and International Security. Activities include fortifying tunnel entrances and rebuilding a damaged facility, raising international concerns about Iran's nuclear program.
A U.S. congressional committee, led by Representative John Moolenaar, has alleged that Chinese universities tied to the People's Liberation Army possess credentials for the National Science Foundation's supercomputing systems. This alleged access to the ACCESS program could potentially circumvent U.S. export controls and aid China's military modernization, including nuclear weapons development and advanced AI.
An analysis published on January 21, 2026, highlights that Russia's development and recent testing of nuclear-powered weapons like the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon underwater drone are pushing the international system of strategic stability to the brink. These systems, with their potentially unlimited range and unique capabilities, are seen as Moscow's leverage in arms control negotiations, particularly as the New START treaty approaches its expiration.
The New START Treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and the Russian Federation, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. With no formal negotiations underway for a successor, the looming expiration raises concerns among international observers about a potential new nuclear arms race and a significant reduction in transparency regarding the world's largest nuclear arsenals.
Japan has allocated significant funding in its record-setting 2026 defense budget to accelerate the production and deployment of hypersonic missiles. This move, driven by perceived threats from China and North Korea, marks a strategic shift in Japan's defense posture, bringing forward missile production originally slated for 2031 to 2026.
Iran announced on December 29, 2025, it would not permit inspections of its bombed nuclear facilities without a clear 'post-war conditions' framework from the IAEA. This follows recent US strikes in June 2025 on key sites like Natanz and Fordow, and ongoing tensions over Iran's nuclear program.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has again criticized a senior government official's statements advocating for Japan to possess nuclear weapons. Ishiba emphasized Japan's unique historical position and the implications for its international treaties and energy policy.
China has reiterated its long-standing commitment to a 'no-first-use' nuclear weapons policy and a self-defensive nuclear strategy. Beijing dismissed recent U.S. claims regarding its nuclear arsenal expansion as a pretext for Washington's own modernization efforts and a threat to global strategic stability.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko has voiced strong opposition to ongoing discussions in Japan regarding the potential acquisition of nuclear weapons, warning that such a move would severely destabilize Northeast Asia. Moscow views any shift from Japan's non-nuclear principles as 'unequivocally negative' and a precursor to an arms race, prompting potential countermeasures from other states. The warning comes amidst internal Japanese debate on its defense posture.
Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, stated that Iran has achieved significant nuclear advancements and could easily build an atomic bomb if it chose to. This declaration comes as Iran continues to enrich uranium to high levels and faces international scrutiny over its nuclear program.
Israel is reportedly concerned by renewed talks between the United States and Qatar regarding the potential sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets. Jerusalem fears such a deal could erode its qualitative military edge in the Middle East, prompting the formulation of a compensatory arms package for Washington.
A senior Israeli Defense Forces official has warned that Iran has resumed large-scale production of ballistic missiles, approximately six months after its 12-day conflict with Israel in June 2025. This acceleration follows significant damage to its missile manufacturing capacity during the recent hostilities, with Tehran reportedly prioritizing the rapid restoration of its missile program.
At the Milken Institute Summit, Prince Turki Al-Faisal asserted that Israel is the primary source of instability in West Asia, citing its military actions. He suggested Saudi Arabia should consider developing nuclear weapons if Iran does, highlighting Israel's undeclared arsenal.
Estonia is significantly enhancing its defense industry by launching a €100 million defense fund, establishing industrial parks for arms manufacturers, and committing to raise its defense spending to an average of 5.4% of GDP by 2029. These strategic moves leverage Estonia's startup ecosystem to foster innovation and strengthen national security amidst evolving geopolitical challenges.
The United States and Russia have recently issued threats regarding the resumption of nuclear testing, sparking international alarm and jeopardizing a decades-long global moratorium. US President Trump indicated a return to testing 'on an equal basis,' while Russian President Putin ordered analysis for reciprocal measures if the US proceeds.
Led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nihon Hidankyo, Japanese civil society groups submitted a petition with nearly 3.5 million signatures in November 2025, pressing the government to ratify the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The move highlights ongoing domestic pressure for Japan, the only nation to have experienced atomic bombings, to align with the global nuclear disarmament effort.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow would respond 'in kind' if any nation resumes nuclear tests, directly addressing former US President Donald Trump's recent suggestions for the US to restart such activities. The warning highlights escalating tensions over nuclear arms control and the future of international non-proliferation efforts.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced Russia's readiness to continue observing the numerical limits of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty for an additional year, provided the United States reciprocates. The offer comes as the last remaining major arms control treaty between the two nuclear powers is set to expire in February 2026, with the US reportedly considering the proposal.
Russia launched a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile on October 22, 2025, as part of a large-scale strategic nuclear forces exercise. The United States followed with a test of its Minuteman III ICBM on November 5, 2025, from Vandenberg Space Force Base. These events unfold amidst escalating rhetoric regarding nuclear testing and the impending expiration of the New START treaty.
