New START Treaty Nears Expiration, Raising Nuclear Arms Race Concerns

Critical Arms Control Treaty Approaches End

The New START Treaty, a pivotal arms control agreement between the United States and the Russian Federation, is scheduled to expire on February 5, 2026. This expiration marks a significant moment in international security, as it would leave no legally binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers for the first time since the early 1970s.

Signed in Prague on April 8, 2010, and entering into force on February 5, 2011, the New START Treaty was designed to enhance U.S. national security by placing verifiable limits on Russian intercontinental-range nuclear weapons. The treaty established caps on strategic offensive arms, limiting each side to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers, and a total of 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers.

Verification and Recent Strains

A crucial aspect of the New START Treaty has been its robust verification regime, which includes data exchanges, notifications, and on-site inspections. These measures have provided the United States with vital insight into Russian nuclear forces, fostering transparency and reducing the risk of miscalculation.

However, the treaty's implementation has faced challenges. In February 2023, Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the treaty's inspection activities, with the U.S. following suit. Despite this, both nations have indicated a continued adherence to the treaty's core numerical limits, suggesting its political and practical value even in a weakened state.

Stalled Negotiations and Future Uncertainty

The treaty's provisions did not allow for an extension beyond the current 2026 date. In September 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that Russia would voluntarily observe the treaty's central quantitative restrictions for one year after its expiration, provided the United States acted in a similar spirit. While former President Donald Trump reportedly expressed interest in this proposal, no formal response has been issued by the United States.

U.S. and Russian officials have not engaged in negotiations for a follow-on agreement since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The absence of active agreements or negotiations to replace New START raises concerns about a potential nuclear arms race. Experts warn that without these limits, strategic planning on both sides could be driven by uncertainty and worst-case assessments, increasing the risk of a new arms race if either side begins expanding its nuclear arsenal.

Potential for a New Arms Race

The expiration of New START could lead to a significant shift in global strategic stability. Without the treaty's constraints, both the United States and Russia would be free to deploy as many nuclear weapons as they deem necessary, potentially sparking a new arms race. This scenario could lead to increased global instability, making intentions harder to discern and crises more challenging to manage. The treaty's demise would mark a break in over five decades of bilateral nuclear arms control, signaling a move away from nuclear restraint and potentially making the world a more dangerous place.