New START Treaty Nears Expiration Amidst Stalled Successor Talks

Last Major Nuclear Treaty Approaches End

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the sole remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and the Russian Federation, is scheduled to expire on February 5, 2026. As this deadline approaches, there have been no formal discussions between the two nuclear powers regarding a successor treaty, leading to widespread concern about the future of global strategic stability.

Treaty's Origins and Provisions

Signed on April 8, 2010, in Prague by then-Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, the New START Treaty entered into force on February 5, 2011. Its primary objective was to reduce and limit the strategic offensive arms of both nations, enhancing international security through predictability and transparency.

Key provisions of the treaty include limits on:

• 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads for each side.
• 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.
• 800 deployed and non-deployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers.

The treaty also established a robust verification regime, including on-site inspections and data exchanges, to ensure compliance.

Recent Strains and Lack of Dialogue

The path to the treaty's expiration has been marked by increasing tensions. In February 2023, Russia announced its suspension of participation in New START, citing U.S. support for Ukraine. While Russia stated it would continue to abide by the numerical limits of the treaty, the suspension effectively halted mutual inspections and data exchanges, significantly reducing transparency.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been a major impediment to any substantive talks on a successor agreement. In September 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a 12-month extension of the New START limits. However, U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet delivered a formal response to this offer.

Concerns Over an Unconstrained Future

The impending expiration without a replacement agreement has raised alarms among arms control advocates and international security analysts. Experts warn that the absence of a binding framework could lead to an unconstrained nuclear arms race between the world's two largest nuclear powers.

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia and the United States possess estimated total inventories of 5,459 and 5,177 nuclear warheads, respectively, accounting for nearly 87% of the global nuclear arsenal. Without the New START Treaty, the mechanisms for verifying these numbers and ensuring stability will cease to exist, potentially fostering an environment of increased mistrust and strategic unpredictability.