China's Submarine Production Outpaces US, New Report Reveals

Introduction

A new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reveals that China's nuclear submarine production rate has surpassed that of the United States in recent years. This development, detailed in the IISS's Military Balance blog, highlights a notable shift in global naval industrial capacity and presents a growing challenge for Western nations.

Accelerated Production in China

Between 2021 and 2025, China launched 10 submarines with an estimated total displacement of 79,000 tonnes (approximately 87,000 tons). This figure includes the seventh and eighth Type 094 (Jin) nuclear-armed ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs), which are crucial components of Beijing's emerging nuclear triad. Additionally, satellite assessments suggest that nine Type 093B (Shang III) nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines (SSGNs) have been launched since 2022, featuring design enhancements such as vertical launch systems.

This accelerated production is largely attributed to significant enhancements at the Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co (BSHIC) shipyard in Huludao. Between 2019 and 2022, the facility underwent substantial upgrades, including the construction of a second submarine manufacturing hall, making BSHIC a cornerstone of China's nuclear submarine fleet expansion. This marks a stark contrast to the 2016-2020 period, when China added only three submarines with a combined displacement of 23,000 tonnes, while the US brought seven new submarines into service.

US Production Challenges and Fleet Overview

In comparison, the United States launched seven submarines displacing 55,000 to 55,500 tonnes during the 2021-2025 period. The US Navy has faced persistent challenges in meeting its submarine production goals. While aiming to produce two Virginia-class submarines per year, actual output has consistently lagged, averaging around 1.1 to 1.3 boats annually since 2022. These delays are primarily due to factors such as workforce shortages, supply chain disruptions, and material availability issues. The Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine program is also experiencing delays, with the first vessel not expected for delivery until 2028 or 2029.

As of early 2025, the United States maintains a larger overall operational nuclear submarine fleet, with 65 submarines in total, including 14 ballistic-missile boats. All US submarines are nuclear-powered. China's active nuclear-powered submarine fleet stands at 12 vessels, comprising six ballistic-missile boats and six guided-missile or attack submarines, supplemented by a sizeable fleet of 46 conventionally powered submarines.

Strategic Implications and Qualitative Differences

While China has achieved a quantitative lead in recent submarine launches, analysts note that qualitative differences persist. US submarines are generally considered more technologically advanced and quieter than their Chinese counterparts. However, some intelligence reports suggest that the newest Chinese submarines are beginning to approach US noise levels, potentially eroding a long-standing stealth advantage.

This rapid expansion of China's submarine fleet is part of a broader naval modernization effort. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is already the largest navy in the world by vessel count, with approximately 395 combat ships as of early 2025/late 2024, compared to the US Navy's 296. Between 2020 and 2025, China built between 115 and 125 military warships, averaging 19 to 21 units per year. The IISS report underscores that the increasing number of Chinese submarines will present a growing strategic challenge for Western countries.