Pentagon Signals Strategic Shift for USFK
The Pentagon is actively considering an expanded role for United States Forces Korea (USFK), aiming to broaden its strategic focus beyond the Korean Peninsula to help deter China. This potential shift marks a significant recalibration of US military posture in the region, aligning USFK's mission with the broader objectives of the recently released National Defense Strategy (NDS).
Traditionally, USFK, comprising approximately 28,500 US troops, has been primarily tasked with deterring aggression from North Korea and defending the Republic of Korea (ROK). However, the new NDS prioritizes deterring China in the Indo-Pacific and calls for increased burden-sharing among US allies and partners.
Focus on 'First Island Chain' and Regional Deterrence
Elbridge Colby, the US undersecretary of defense for policy and a key architect of the NDS, recently visited South Korea and Japan, where he hinted at a possible restructuring of forces to concentrate on the 'first island chain'. This geographical concept refers to a series of islands and archipelagos stretching from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines and the South China Sea.
Colby emphasized that Washington's defense strategy in the Indo-Pacific centers on 'deterrence by denial along the first island chain'. The goal is to establish a military posture in the western Pacific that makes aggression along this chain 'infeasible', escalation 'unattractive', and war 'irrational'. While the Korean Peninsula is not directly part of the first island chain, the USFK's posture is being optimized to contribute to this broader regional deterrence.
South Korea's Enhanced Role and Potential Implications
Under the proposed strategic adjustments, the NDS suggests that South Korea should assume primary responsibility for conventional deterrence against North Korean threats. The US would then provide 'critical but more limited' support, acknowledging South Korea's robust military capabilities, high defense spending, and conscription system.
This shift could lead to a 'fundamental change' in the nature of USFK, allowing for its systematic deployment across the Indo-Pacific region, potentially even in the event of a conflict involving Taiwan. Such a change, however, raises concerns among some experts about potential miscalculation or provocation by North Korea and an increased burden on South Korea's military readiness against its northern neighbor.
The evolving strategy also highlights the importance of the ongoing transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) from the US to South Korea, a process the Lee Jae Myung administration aims to complete by 2030. USFK Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson has reframed the Korean Peninsula as a 'decisive, central military hub', asserting that robust deterrence there inherently contributes to broader regional stability, including towards China and Russia.
Modernizing Force Posture
The Pentagon's vision includes a 'resilient, distributed and modernised force posture' across the region, optimized for denying quick or decisive gains through military force. This involves a reassessment of USFK's current structure, which is largely optimized for land operations on the peninsula and may lack the maritime capabilities essential for 'first island chain' contingencies. South Korea is encouraged to proactively shape this new strategic narrative for USFK, ensuring mutual consultation and transparency for any deployments outside the peninsula.
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