IBGE Publishes Latest Industrial Production Figures
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced today, February 3, 2026, the release of its Monthly Industrial Survey of Physical Production (PIM-PF) for December 2025. The latest figures indicate that Brazil's industrial output retreated by 1.2% in December. This release offers a vital snapshot of the health and trends within the nation's industrial sectors.
Understanding the PIM-PF Survey
The PIM-PF is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output generated by Brazil's manufacturing, mining, and utilities industries. The survey has been providing short-term indicators on the real products of these sectors since the 1970s. A significant redesign of the PIM-PF in May 2014 updated its methodology, including the sample of activities, products, and informants, as well as developing a new weighting structure and adopting updated classifications such as CNAE 2.0 and PRODLIST-Industry.
The survey's comprehensive scope includes approximately 8,596 companies and 12,500 local units, investigating 1,042 products, with 789 specific to Brazil and an additional 253 for regional analysis.
Recent Trends and Economic Context
The December 2025 data follows a period where Brazil's industrial production has shown signs of stagnation and contraction. In November 2025, the PIM-PF indicated a stagnation in production, and the industrial output stalled for a second consecutive month, missing expectations and marking a third period without gain. Year-on-year, industrial production in November 2025 saw a 1.2% decline, representing the sharpest contraction in five months.
Broader economic indicators also reflect a challenging environment for the industrial sector. The S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 fell to 47.0 from 47.6 in December, signaling a notable deterioration in the sector's health and marking the tenth consecutive month of sales contraction. Analysts suggest that a slowdown in economic activity, if reinforced by such indices, could lead investors to anticipate faster interest rate cuts by the Central Bank, potentially influencing domestic asset yields and the strength of the Brazilian Real (BRL). This trend is largely attributed to a contractionary monetary policy and rising interest rates aimed at curbing inflation.
5 Comments
Habibi
This pain now means a healthier economy later. Stick with the plan, Central Bank.
Muchacho
Reliable data from IBGE is crucial for understanding the economy. Good to see transparency.
Coccinella
Another month, another decline. Our industry is truly suffering.
Bella Ciao
PMI at 47.0? That's a disaster. We're heading for recession.
Mariposa
Tough medicine is needed to fight inflation. The Central Bank is doing its job.