Dry Weather and Heatwave Threaten Argentine Soybean and Maize Yields

Argentine Crops Face Severe Drought Conditions

Argentina's vital agricultural sector is currently grappling with a period of intense dry weather and a significant heatwave, raising serious concerns for the 2025/2026 soybean and maize crop yields. January rainfall has been notably below normal across key farming regions, exacerbating already dry conditions that began in December. This meteorological pattern is threatening to reduce anticipated harvests in one of the world's leading agricultural exporting nations.

Meteorologists indicate that significant relief from the dry spell is not expected until February, with temperatures recently soaring near 104°F (40°C) in critical agricultural areas. The core farm belt, particularly in the southern Santa Fe province and northern Buenos Aires province, requires an estimated 70 to 80 millimeters of rainfall to support crop development. The Pampas regions have already experienced precipitation deficits of 50-70 mm since January.

Impact on Key Agricultural Exports

The prolonged dry conditions are particularly detrimental to early-planted corn, with experts from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noting that only 10-25 mm of precipitation is expected in main corn-growing regions over the coming week, far below the necessary levels for full crop development. Argentina is a global powerhouse in agriculture, standing as the world's leading exporter of soy meal and soy oil, and the third-largest supplier of corn. Any significant reduction in yields could have substantial repercussions for both domestic food supply and international grain and oilseed markets.

Farmers have nearly completed planting for the season, with the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reporting that 93.1% of corn and 96.2% of soybeans have been sown. However, the lack of moisture is already showing visible signs of stress on the crops. Farmer Ignacio Bastanchuri from Navarro, Buenos Aires province, observed a 'lack of kernels on the cobs' in corn. Another farmer, Javier Dominguez in Suipacha, highlighted the precarious situation for soybeans, stating their fate 'depends heavily on whether it rains on Tuesday or Wednesday'.

Revised Forecasts and Broader Economic Concerns

Initial forecasts for Argentina's 2025/2026 harvest are now under review. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) had previously projected Argentina's corn harvest at 53 million tons and its soybean harvest at 48.5 million tons. While LSEG recently raised Argentina's corn production estimate to 57.9 million metric tons due to a larger planting area, it cautioned that low rainfall and declining soil moisture could limit yields, especially for late-planted corn. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which had forecast a record corn harvest of 62 million tons, now acknowledges the unfavorable weather conditions.

Beyond staple crops, the drought is also negatively impacting Argentina's livestock industry, as pastures and forage crops wither. Reports indicate sorghum yields are significantly below expectations, with some ranchers seeing only 2.5 tons per hectare compared to an expected 7 tons. While some areas, including La Pampa province and northwestern Buenos Aires, received beneficial rains of 60-70 millimeters over a recent weekend, alleviating what farmer Marcelo Rodriguez termed an 'infernal crisis', the overall outlook remains challenging.