Iranian Regime Grapples with Internal Dissent and Internet Restoration Debate Amidst Brutal Crackdown

Widespread Protests Met with Severe Crackdown

Iran has been gripped by widespread protests since December 28, 2025, initially sparked by economic grievances before spreading across the nation. The Iranian regime has responded with a violent crackdown, including an extensive internet shutdown that commenced on January 8, 2026. This blackout is considered one of the most severe on record, effectively cutting off an estimated 92 million citizens from international internet access. Security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Basij battalions, have reportedly used unlawful force, firearms, and prohibited weapons against demonstrators, leading to mass killings. Casualty figures remain disputed, with some reports citing thousands killed, while a UN Special Rapporteur, citing medical sources, suggested the death toll could be as high as 20,000. Other newly reviewed classified documents claim over 36,500 people were killed during the January 8-9 crackdown.

Leaks Expose Internal Dissent and Brutality Orders

The severity of the crackdown has been underscored by continued leaks from within the Iranian official circles to Western media, indicating significant internal dissent. These leaks challenge the regime's narrative that security forces are victims of 'terrorism'. Notably, a report by The New York Times on January 25, 2026, revealed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei allegedly issued an order to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) on January 9 to crush the protests 'by any means necessary', with directives to 'shoot to kill' and 'show no mercy'. In response to the brutal suppression, the US Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on Iranian officials, including Ali Larani, the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, for their alleged roles in orchestrating the violence.

Economic Toll Fuels Internet Restoration Debate

The extensive internet shutdown, implemented to conceal the scale of the crackdown and suppress dissent, has inflicted a heavy economic toll on Iran. Estimates by Netblocks suggest the blackout costs the Iranian economy over $37 million USD per day, severely crippling the e-commerce sector and negatively impacting other businesses. This significant financial burden has ignited an internal debate within the regime. Factions are reportedly divided between those who fear that restoring internet access could reignite protests and those who believe the economic consequences of continued restrictions could lead to further unrest. Despite statements from officials, including Iran's Vice President for science, technology, and the knowledge-based economy, Hossein Afshin, on January 19, 2026, that internet access would return to normal, international connectivity remains heavily restricted. The regime has indicated a gradual lifting of restrictions, prioritizing domestic apps and services before full international access is restored.