Russia's Fertility Rate Hits New Low Amid Tenth Consecutive Year of Decline

Fertility Rate Reaches Historic Low

The Russian Federation's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to an unprecedented low of 1.374 children per woman by the close of 2025. This figure, reported by Russia's state statistics agency Rosstat and cited by The Moscow Times, represents the tenth consecutive year of decline and is the lowest recorded since 2006, when the TFR stood at 1.305. The TFR had peaked at 1.762 in 2015, indicating a significant drop of 22% since then.

Declining Births and Population Trends

The overall number of births in Russia has also seen a substantial decrease. In 2024, only 1.222 million babies were born, marking the lowest annual figure since 1999. The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend, with just 288,000 births, setting a new record for the lowest number of births since the late 18th and early 19th centuries. This demographic shift contributes to a broader population decline, with Russia's estimated population at 146.0 million as of January 1, 2025, down from 147.2 million in 2021. In 2024, deaths outnumbered births by approximately 600,000, representing the steepest natural decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Government Initiatives to Counter Decline

Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently emphasized the need to increase birth rates, setting a target of at least 2.0 children per woman. The government has outlined ambitious goals to raise the TFR to 1.6 by 2030 and 1.8 by 2036 as part of its 'family-centric' demographic strategy. Measures implemented or proposed include:

• Promoting traditional family values and incentivizing large families.
• Providing lump-sum payments at childbirth and extended maternity benefits.
• Offering financial support for families with children.
• Introducing financial incentives for female students under 25 who give birth, with some regions offering 100,000 rubles.
• Encouraging 'Caucasus traditions' of teen marriage.
• Considering legislation to ban 'childfree propaganda'.

Underlying Factors and Societal Impact

The persistent decline is attributed to several factors, including economic insecurity, high emigration, and evolving social norms that discourage family formation. A 2025 study by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) revealed that 18% of families do not plan to have children, a threefold increase over the past two decades. The TFR for third and subsequent children also saw a decrease in December 2025, falling to 0.362 from 0.376 in 2024. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has further exacerbated the demographic challenges, contributing to military casualties and an outflow of human capital, which analysts describe as a 'demographic hemorrhage'. The current fertility rate remains significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, necessary to maintain a stable population.