Portuguese Regulator Acts Against Unlicensed Operations
The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), Portugal's national gambling regulator, has mandated that the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket cease all operations within the country. The order, announced on January 17, 2026, gave Polymarket 48 hours to comply, citing the platform's operation without a valid license in Portugal. Authorities have indicated that if Polymarket fails to comply, internet service providers will be instructed to block access to the platform nationwide.
Strict Prohibition on Political Betting Under Portuguese Law
A primary reason for the regulatory action is Portugal's stringent online gambling legislation, specifically its 2015 online gambling law, which explicitly prohibits betting on political events. The law permits only sports betting, casino games, and horse racing. SRIJ officials stated that Polymarket's activities, which include markets on political outcomes, are strictly illegal under Portuguese jurisdiction, regardless of whether traditional currency or cryptocurrency is used.
Concerns Over Presidential Election Betting and Insider Trading
The regulatory crackdown was significantly prompted by a surge in betting activity related to Portugal's January 18 presidential election. Reports indicate that over €103 million ($120 million) was wagered on the election outcome through Polymarket. Regulators raised red flags due to suspicious betting patterns, particularly significant shifts in odds for Socialist candidate António José Seguro in the hours leading up to the public release of results. This raised concerns about potential insider trading or the use of non-public information, as well as the integrity of the electoral process.
Implications for Users and Broader Regulatory Landscape
The SRIJ has warned Portuguese users that they may not be able to recover funds held on Polymarket once the platform is blocked, as only licensed operators offer consumer protections. Polymarket's decentralized nature and use of USDC stablecoins for transactions further complicate oversight. This move by Portugal adds to a growing list of over 30 countries that have restricted or blocked Polymarket, including recent actions by Hungary. The platform has also faced regulatory scrutiny in the United States, reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022. The ongoing global regulatory pressure highlights the tension between decentralized prediction markets and national legal frameworks.
5 Comments
Africa
Typical government overreach. Let people bet on what they want.
Bermudez
The SRIJ is right to be concerned about unlicensed operations and potential insider trading, especially with such large sums involved. However, the article also highlights the global nature of these platforms, making national blocks a temporary solution at best.
Africa
Portugal is stifling innovation. Prediction markets offer valuable data.
Raphael
While it's important to protect electoral integrity from suspicious betting, completely blocking Polymarket seems heavy-handed. Perhaps a licensing framework for specific markets could be explored instead of an outright ban.
Muchacha
Consumer protection is a valid concern when dealing with unregulated platforms like Polymarket, and users should be aware of the risks. But the argument that these markets provide unique insights is also worth considering, even if they need better oversight.