Brazil's 2026 Soybean Exports Forecast to Decline by Safras & Mercado Amid Rising Domestic Processing

Safras & Mercado Forecasts Export Reduction

Agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado has projected a 3% decrease in Brazil's soybean exports for 2026, estimating total shipments at 105 million metric tons. This outlook, released on Monday, January 19, 2026, suggests a shift in the world's largest soybean producer and exporter's market dynamics.

According to Safras & Mercado analyst Rafael Silveira, this forecast reflects expectations for another record soybean crop coupled with a significant increase in domestic crushing. Soybean crushing in 2026 is estimated to reach 60 million tons, an increase from 58.5 million tons in the previous year. Total soybean supply is anticipated to rise by 5% year-on-year to 183.79 million tons, while overall demand is expected to decline by 1% to 168.42 million tons.

Contrasting Industry Projections

The forecast from Safras & Mercado stands in contrast to several other prominent industry and governmental projections for Brazil's 2026 soybean exports. For instance, Argus Media indicates that Brazil is set to export 111.8 million tons of soybeans in the 2025-26 season, representing a 3.3% increase from the prior crop. Similarly, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Brazilian soybean exports to reach 113 million tons, a 3.7% increase. The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) projects 111 million tons of soybean grains to be shipped abroad in 2026. Experts from Oil World predict at least 115 million tons of soybean exports in 2026.

Factors Influencing Brazil's Soybean Market

Brazil's soybean production continues to be robust. Safras & Mercado itself estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop at a record 179.28 million tons. Other sources, like Agroconsult, project a record production of 182.2 million metric tons for the 2025/26 marketing year. The National Supply Company (Conab) also forecasts the 2025/26 soybean harvest to reach 176.1 million tonnes, a 2.7% increase from the previous harvest.

A key driver for increased domestic crushing is the growing demand for soybean oil, particularly for biodiesel production. The Brazilian government's 'Future Fuel' program has increased the mandatory biodiesel blend from B14 to B15, which is expected to boost demand for soybean oil by 7%. Further increases to B16 are also possible. This expansion of biodiesel production is stimulating domestic demand for soybean oil, which accounts for approximately 75% of the total biodiesel production in the country.

Broader Market Implications

Despite the projected decline in raw soybean exports by Safras & Mercado, Brazil's role as a global agricultural powerhouse remains significant. The country is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, with China being its primary destination, accounting for over 70% of its soybean exports. The increase in domestic processing indicates a strategic move towards adding value to its agricultural commodities within the country, rather than solely exporting raw materials. This trend could lead to higher exports of value-added products like soymeal and soy oil, even as raw bean exports might see a temporary dip.