IMF Lowers Russia's 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.8%

IMF Revises Downward Russia's Economic Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Monday, January 19, 2026, a downward revision of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the Russian Federation in 2026. The new projection stands at 0.8%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from its previous estimate of 1%, which was made in October. This update was part of the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report.

Context of the Downgrade

While the IMF did not explicitly state specific reasons for this particular downgrade in its January 2026 update, noting that it has not sent monitoring missions to Russia since November 2019, broader economic analyses and earlier reports provide context. Factors contributing to a general slowdown in Russia's economic expansion include:

• Tighter domestic economic policies
• Lower oil and gas prices, impacting state revenues
• High costs of credit and an excessively strong ruble
• Labor shortages
• Tax hikes
• The central bank's strategy of maintaining high key interest rates to combat inflation

These elements are seen as weighing down on the economy, making a significant rebound in 2026 unlikely.

Comparison with Other Forecasts and Global Trends

The IMF's revised forecast places Russia's anticipated growth significantly below the global average, which the IMF upgraded to 3.3% for 2026. Emerging market economies are projected to grow by an average of 4.2%, and advanced economies by 1.8% in the same year. In contrast, Russia's Central Bank has projected 2026 GDP growth to be between 0.5% and 1.5%, while the Economic Development Ministry's forecast stands at 1.3%. The World Bank has also revised its GDP growth forecasts for Russia downward for 2026 to 0.8% and for 2027 to 1%.

Broader Economic Picture

The IMF had previously estimated Russia's 2025 growth at 0.6%, a notable deceleration from the 4.3% GDP growth recorded in 2024, which was largely attributed to surging defense spending. The IMF projects Russia's GDP to grow by 1% in 2027. This trajectory suggests a return to stagnation after a period of war-driven expansion.