China's Birth Rate Plummets to Record Low as Population Shrinks for Fourth Consecutive Year

Demographic Shift Deepens as Births Hit Historic Low

China's birth rate plunged to a historic low of 5.63 per thousand people in 2025, according to official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. This figure represents the lowest birth rate recorded since 1949, the year the People's Republic of China was founded. The nation's population consequently shrank for the fourth consecutive year, underscoring deepening demographic challenges.

A total of just 7.92 million births were registered in 2025, a significant decrease from 9.54 million in 2024 and 9.02 million in 2023. Concurrently, the number of deaths rose to 11.31 million in 2025, up from 10.93 million in 2024, resulting in a mortality rate of 8.04 per thousand people—the highest since 1968. The overall population declined by approximately 3.39 million, bringing the total to around 1.405 billion. This demographic shift has seen China lose its status as the world's most populous country to India in 2023.

Contributing Factors to Declining Fertility

Several complex factors contribute to China's persistent decline in birth rates, despite government efforts to reverse the trend. A primary deterrent is the high cost of raising children, particularly in urban areas, encompassing significant expenses for childcare and education. Economic uncertainties, including high youth unemployment and slowing economic growth, further discourage young couples from having larger families.

The legacy of the decades-long one-child policy, which was fully abandoned in 2016 and replaced by a three-child policy in 2021, continues to influence societal norms, with many adults conditioned to prefer single-child households. Changing social attitudes also play a crucial role, as an increasing number of young Chinese, especially highly-educated urban women, are delaying or forgoing marriage and parenthood due to career aspirations and evolving life priorities. Furthermore, marriage rates have seen a significant decline, with a fifth fewer marriages in 2024 compared to 2023, which typically serves as a leading indicator for future birth rates.

Government Interventions and Future Implications

In response to the escalating demographic crisis, the Chinese government has implemented various measures aimed at boosting fertility. These include allocating 90 billion yuan for a nationwide childcare subsidy program for children under three in 2025 and offering cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child annually. Other initiatives involve expanding national healthcare insurance to cover childbirth-related expenses, including IVF treatment, and waiving fees for public kindergartens.

In a more controversial move, condoms and contraceptives lost their tax-exempt status and became subject to a 13% value-added tax from January 1, 2026, an attempt by authorities to indirectly encourage higher birth rates. The government has also raised retirement ages, with men now expected to work until 63 and women until 58. Despite these interventions, demographers warn that the sustained decline in births and the rapid aging of China's population pose significant long-term risks to economic growth, labor supply, and the sustainability of social welfare systems, including pensions and healthcare. The population aged 60 and above reached approximately 323 million in 2025, accounting for 23% of the total population, a figure projected to reach 400 million by 2035.