Russia Prepares for Limited Reservist Draft Amid Ukraine Losses, ISW Reports

Kremlin Moves Towards Limited Reservist Call-Ups

The Russian Federation is reportedly preparing for a limited, rolling draft of reservists, a measure intended to offset significant military losses in Ukraine without resorting to a full-scale mobilization. This assessment comes from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which published its findings on February 18, 2026. The move is seen as an effort to sustain the size of Russia's forces in Ukraine while avoiding the widespread public discontent that followed the 2022 partial mobilization.

Legislative Groundwork Laid

In a related development, the Russian State Duma passed a bill in its first reading on February 18, 2026, designed to strengthen preventative measures against 'evading the duty to defend the country' and 'distortion of historical truth.' Analysts suggest this legislation is likely intended to provide legal grounds to prosecute individuals who criticize involuntary reservist call-ups. This legislative action is part of a broader pattern of preparations by the Kremlin, which has been setting conditions for a phased, forced reservist draft since at least October 2025.

Key preparatory steps include:

• October 2025: The Russian Cabinet approved a bill allowing the deployment of reservists in expeditionary missions abroad without an official declaration of mobilization or martial law.
• November 2025: President Vladimir Putin signed a decree enabling military enlistment offices to conduct conscription year-round.
• December 2025: Putin approved a mandatory call-up of reservists for 'military training' in 2026, which is believed to be a method for secretly drafting strategic reserves. Separately, a decree was signed for year-round conscription in 2026, targeting 261,000 men aged 18 to 30 who are not in the reserve, for compulsory military service.

Addressing Manpower Shortages

The ISW indicates that Russia's decision to pursue limited reservist call-ups stems from a 'position of weakness,' as its expensive voluntary recruitment system is reportedly nearing exhaustion. Reports suggest that in January 2026, Russia experienced approximately 9,000 more battlefield casualties than it was able to replace through recruitment, marking a significant shift where losses outpaced new enlistments. The Kremlin's strategy aims to maintain current force levels and the tempo of offensive operations, rather than significantly expanding the military presence in Ukraine.

Information Control and Future Outlook

Alongside legislative changes, the Kremlin has also reportedly throttled access to Telegram in recent days, a move that the ISW links to efforts to consolidate control over the information space and limit criticism of the government or the war effort. This approach reflects President Putin's ongoing attempt to balance the need for military personnel with the desire to prevent mass societal discontent, which was a significant consequence of the 2022 partial mobilization. Ukrainian military leadership has, in turn, warned that Russia might seek to draft over 400,000 personnel in 2026 and establish at least 11 new divisions.