Muslim Voters Poised to Play Decisive Role in Gorton and Denton By-Election

Gorton and Denton By-Election Set for February 26

A crucial by-election is slated for Thursday, February 26, 2026, in the Gorton and Denton constituency, a newly established parliamentary seat in Greater Manchester. This contest has garnered significant attention due to the anticipated decisive influence of the constituency's substantial Muslim electorate. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne, who had secured the seat for Labour in the 2024 general election but stepped down citing 'significant ill health' following a suspension from the Labour Party.

A Diverse Constituency with a Significant Muslim Population

The Gorton and Denton constituency, formed from parts of the abolished Manchester Gorton and Denton and Reddish seats for the 2024 general election, is a predominantly urban area known for its diversity. Demographically, Muslims constitute approximately 28% of the constituency's population. Within the Manchester wards of the constituency, the Muslim population averages around 40%, while areas like Denton are predominantly White. The Asian population, primarily Pakistanis, represents the largest ethnic minority group at 27%, with concentrations in neighborhoods such as Longsight.

Key Issues Shaping the Campaign

The campaign in Gorton and Denton extends beyond traditional local concerns, with national and international issues heavily influencing voter sentiment. Prominent among these are identity politics, the Middle East policy—particularly the ongoing war in Gaza—and the debate surrounding the definition of 'Islamophobia'. The Green Party, for instance, has seen its strong stance on the Gaza conflict resonate with a considerable portion of the Muslim population, making it a key factor in their campaign strategy.

'The Muslim Vote' Endorses Green Party

The influence of Muslim voters is underscored by the actions of 'The Muslim Vote,' an organization established in late 2023 to enhance Muslim participation and political impact in UK elections. The group has publicly endorsed the Green Party candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election, asserting that Muslim voters will play a 'decisive role' in the outcome. Their internal analysis suggests that roughly one in four residents in the constituency is Muslim, a demographic large enough to 'swing the outcome if the vote coalesces around one candidate,' according to political analysts. This endorsement follows the organization's support for independent candidates in the 2024 general election, whose campaigns were largely centered on the war in Gaza.

A Contested Race in a Labour Stronghold

Historically, the areas now comprising Gorton and Denton have been strongholds for the Labour Party. Andrew Gwynne's victory in the 2024 general election secured 50.8% of the vote. However, the upcoming by-election is anticipated to be a much tighter contest. While Labour's Angeliki Stogia is a key contender, the party faces significant challenges from the Green Party's Hannah Spencer and Reform UK's Matt Goodwin. The decision by the Labour Party's National Executive Committee to block Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing as a candidate has also added a layer of complexity to the race, further highlighting the internal and external pressures on the traditional Labour vote in the area.