Bangladesh Grapples with Communal Unrest and Credibility Concerns Ahead of February 12 Elections

National Elections Set Amidst Volatile Climate

Bangladesh is preparing for crucial general elections and a constitutional referendum scheduled for February 12, 2026. These polls will elect members of the Jatiya Sangsad and occur under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, which assumed power following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina's administration in August 2024. The upcoming elections are widely viewed as a significant test for the nation's democratic transition.

Escalating Communal Anxieties and Incidents

The period leading up to the elections has been marked by rising communal tensions and a fragile law-and-order situation across Bangladesh. Reports indicate a disturbing pattern of attacks targeting minority communities, including their homes, temples, and businesses, which has triggered alarm both domestically and internationally. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC) has alleged a significant increase in communal violence as the election date approaches, recording 51 incidents in December 2025 alone. These incidents are reportedly aimed at deterring minority voters from freely exercising their franchise.

A recent notable incident occurred on January 16 in the Sylhet district, where a fire broke out at the home of Hindu schoolteacher Bikash Ranjan Deb. While local police attributed the blaze to an electrical short circuit, it took place against a backdrop of broader communal unrest affecting minority communities. Neighboring India has publicly expressed its concern over this 'disturbing pattern' of attacks on minorities, with the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasizing the need for swift and firm action against such incidents.

Interim Government's Response and Credibility Concerns

In response to the escalating concerns, the interim government, through Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus's Press Wing, issued a statement on January 19, 2026. The government asserted that the majority of incidents involving minority communities in 2025 were 'criminal in nature' rather than communally motivated. A review of official police records indicated 645 incidents between January and December 2025, with 71 identified as having communal elements, including 38 cases of temple vandalism, 8 arsons, and 1 murder. The interim administration reiterated its constitutional and moral obligation to ensure the safety and justice of all citizens, regardless of their religious affiliation.

However, the credibility of the upcoming polls remains a significant concern. The Awami League, a major political party and winner of the previous four elections, has been barred from contesting, a move that critics argue undermines inclusivity. Furthermore, Islamist groups are reportedly advocating for a referendum to fundamentally alter Bangladesh's constitution, intensifying fears among secularists and minorities. International observers, including Conservative MP Bob Blackman in the United Kingdom, have questioned the fairness of elections conducted under such conditions.

A Pivotal Moment for Bangladesh's Democracy

The upcoming elections represent a critical juncture for Bangladesh. Following the dramatic uprising in July 2024 that led to the resignation of Sheikh Hasina, the interim government under Muhammad Yunus was tasked with stabilizing the nation and ensuring credible elections. There is a palpable mix of hope and anxiety among the populace, with many citizens, particularly young voters who were instrumental in the 2024 uprising, expressing a strong desire for an 'unflawed, credible election' that is accepted by all. The challenges of maintaining law and order and addressing communal tensions will be crucial in determining the perceived legitimacy and success of the February 12, 2026 polls.