ESSL Study Reveals Significant Increase in Damaging Hail Across Europe, Linked to Atmospheric Moisture

Europe Sees Sharp Rise in Damaging Hail Events

A comprehensive global study, spearheaded by the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL), headquartered in part in Wiener Neustadt, Austria, has revealed a notable increase in damaging hail events, particularly across Europe. The research, published in Nature Geoscience, indicates that Europe is experiencing the most significant rise in the frequency of very large hail, defined as hailstones larger than 5 cm in diameter.

Atmospheric Moisture Identified as Key Factor

The study pinpoints changes in atmospheric moisture near the surface as the primary meteorological cause behind these escalating trends. Researchers found that rising humidity in the lowest layers of the atmosphere contributes directly to the increased frequency of hail. While very large hail is most common in regions such as South America, the United States, and South Africa, Europe has shown the strongest upward trend in its occurrence over the past 30 years.

Collaborative Research and Key Findings

Led by ESSL scientist Fabian Battaglioli, the study was a collaborative effort involving experts from the Adam Mickiewicz University of Poznań in Poland and the German reinsurer Munich Re. The research analyzed data spanning from 1950 to 2023, providing a long-term perspective on hail frequency and associated economic losses. Specific areas within Europe, including northern Italy, south-western France, and eastern Spain, were identified as hotspots for large (≥ 2 cm) and very large (≥ 5 cm) hail. In northern Italy, for instance, very large hail is now estimated to be three times more likely than it was in the 1950s, with the hail season also starting earlier in spring.

Economic Impact and Vulnerability

The report highlights that hail-related economic losses have surged across Europe, with several multi-billion-dollar incidents recorded in recent years. However, the study emphasizes that meteorological changes are only partially responsible for this increase. A significant contributing factor is the growing exposure and vulnerability of communities, as more homes and infrastructure are developed in areas prone to hailstorms. This effect is also a major driver of rising losses in regions like the United States and Australia's coastlines.