Japan Launches Historic Deep-Sea Mission for Rare Earths Amid China's Export Controls

Pioneering Deep-Sea Extraction Effort Underway

Japan has embarked on a landmark deep-sea mission to secure its own supply of rare earth minerals, a strategic move driven by escalating concerns over China's tightening export controls on critical materials. On Monday, January 12, 2026, the government-backed scientific drilling vessel Chikyu departed from Shizuoka, setting sail for waters near Minamitori Island, a remote coral atoll located approximately 1,900 kilometers (1,200 miles) southeast of Tokyo.

This month-long expedition marks the world's first attempt to continuously lift rare-earth-bearing mud from an unprecedented depth of 6,000 meters (6 kilometers) from the seabed directly onto a ship. The mission, led by Shoichi Ishii of the Cabinet Office's ocean innovation platform, aims to test the viability of extracting these vital elements from Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Strategic Imperative: Reducing Reliance on China

The urgency behind Japan's deep-sea venture is directly linked to its historical and ongoing dependence on China for rare earth elements. China currently dominates the global supply chain, accounting for approximately 70 percent of the world's rare earth production and about 90 percent of refining capacity. This dominance has allowed Beijing to exert significant influence over global markets, particularly through export controls.

A pivotal moment occurred in 2010 when China curtailed rare earth exports to Japan during a diplomatic dispute, exposing Tokyo's vulnerability and prompting a long-term strategy to diversify its sources. Since then, Japan has reduced its reliance on China for rare earth imports from 90 percent to about 60 percent through overseas investments, recycling initiatives, and developing manufacturing processes that use fewer minerals. However, for certain heavy rare earths crucial for advanced technologies like electric and hybrid vehicle motors, Japan remains almost entirely dependent on Chinese supplies.

Vast Untapped Reserves and Future Prospects

The waters around Minamitori Island are believed to hold substantial rare earth deposits. Estimates suggest the area contains over 16 million tons of rare earths, making it one of the world's largest known reserves. These deposits are particularly rich in heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and yttrium, which are essential for high-strength magnets, electric vehicles, and military equipment. Some analyses indicate these reserves could satisfy Japan's domestic demand for dysprosium for 730 years and terbium for 420 years.

The Japanese government has invested approximately 40 billion yen (around $250 million) in this project since 2018. If the current trial proves successful, a full-scale mining demonstration is planned for February 2027, with the goal of collecting up to 350 tonnes of sediment per day. This initiative is part of Japan's broader strategy to enhance its economic security and reduce the risks associated with concentrated supply chains.

Geopolitical Implications and International Cooperation

The mission underscores the growing geopolitical significance of critical minerals. China's recent actions, including a ban on exports of certain dual-use items to Japan's military and reports of broader rare earth restrictions, have intensified global concerns. These controls pose risks to strategic sectors such as energy, defense, and semiconductors worldwide.

Japan is actively seeking international cooperation to diversify supply chains, including discussions with G7 finance ministers in Washington and exploring joint development with the United States in the Minamitori Island area. This deep-sea mission is a clear signal of Japan's commitment to long-term resource independence and a strategic response to the evolving dynamics of global critical mineral supply.