France Braces for January Flu Peak Amid Rising Hospital Pressure

Anticipated Flu Peak and Current Epidemic Status

France is preparing for a significant surge in seasonal influenza cases, with health officials projecting a peak in late December or early January. Santé publique France (SPF), the national public health agency, has reported that all mainland regions are currently in an epidemic phase, although the overall intensity is described as 'moderate' at present. Dr. Louis Soulat, vice-president of Samu Urgences de France, indicated on December 26 that the beginning of January is expected to bring a 'very tough situation' for healthcare services.

The current flu season has seen a rapid increase in indicators. During the week of December 15-21, flu-related consultations rose by 24%, reaching an estimated 349 per 100,000 inhabitants. Emergency departments recorded over 15,300 visits for flu-like illness, a 45% increase, with subsequent hospital admissions rising by 50% to more than 2,500 cases. Between early and mid-December, SPF noted a 60% national increase in both emergency visits and hospitalizations for influenza.

Intensified Pressure on Hospitals and 'Plan Blanc' Activation

Emergency services have issued warnings regarding the escalating pressure on hospitals, particularly following the increased social mixing over the Christmas and New Year holidays. Hospitals are already experiencing 'strong and dense' activity, especially within their emergency departments.

In response to the growing influx of patients, many French hospitals activated the emergency 'Plan Blanc' (White Plan) in early January 2025. This protocol allows healthcare facilities to implement extraordinary measures, including:

• Postponing non-urgent surgeries
• Expanding emergency care capacity
• Recalling off-duty staff

By early January, at least 35 hospitals, and later nearly 100, had initiated this emergency plan to manage the surge in flu cases.

The most vulnerable populations, particularly those under 15 years old and individuals aged 65 and over, are disproportionately affected. Data from the 2024/2025 season indicates that people aged 65 and older accounted for approximately 92% of all influenza-related deaths. Staffing challenges are exacerbated by the holiday calendar, complicating rota planning for healthcare workers.

Public Health Response and Vaccination Efforts

The 2024-2025 seasonal influenza vaccination campaign, which commenced on October 15, 2024, has been extended until February 28, 2025. Vaccination is strongly recommended for at-risk groups, including individuals aged 65 and older, pregnant women, those with chronic medical conditions, and residents in long-term care facilities.

Despite the severity of the season, vaccination coverage among adults aged 65 and older saw a decline, reaching 53.7%. By early January, only 10.3 million of the 17.3 million identified vulnerable individuals had received their flu vaccination.

This season has also seen the circulation of an unfamiliar variant, a subgroup of the H3N2 strain known as the 'K variant'. While this variant is more transmissible, it is not considered more severe than other circulating strains like H1N1. Although the current vaccine may be less effective against this specific variant, health authorities emphasize that vaccination remains the most effective defense against influenza, especially for vulnerable groups.

Outlook and Continued Monitoring

The Institut Pasteur, in collaboration with Santé publique France, is utilizing advanced modeling systems to forecast the dynamics and peak of the 2025-2026 influenza outbreak, which began earlier than usual this year. The 2024-2025 influenza epidemic was notably severe, characterized by a prolonged duration, the co-circulation of three influenza viruses (A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B/Victoria), and a significant impact on the healthcare system, including an estimated excess mortality of over 17,600 cases. Public health officials continue to urge adherence to preventive measures, such as good hand hygiene and mask-wearing in crowded settings, to help mitigate the spread of the virus.