IMF Concludes 2025 Article IV Mission to Moldova, Citing Economic Recovery and EU Accession Opportunities

IMF Mission Assesses Moldova's Economic Landscape

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, headed by Alina Iancu, concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Moldova on December 17, 2025. The mission, which commenced on December 4, focused on evaluating Moldova's economic performance, policy challenges, and prospects for sustainable growth amidst its European Union accession aspirations.

The IMF's concluding statement indicated that Moldova's economy is experiencing a gradual recovery after several years of subdued activity. This period was marked by spillovers from Russia's war in Ukraine and recurrent energy shocks.

Economic Recovery and Growth Projections

The mission observed that real GDP growth resumed in late 2024 and is projected to reach 2.7 percent for 2025. This growth is primarily supported by a better-than-expected harvest and robust consumption and investment. Inflation has shown a steady decline, with expectations for it to return to the National Bank of Moldova's (NBM) target range of 5 ± 1.5 percent by the end of the year.

Looking ahead, IMF staff project real GDP to grow by 2.3 percent in 2026, with growth anticipated to reach 3.7 percent by 2028. These projections are underpinned by rising public and private investment and productivity-enhancing structural reforms under the EU Growth Plan. Despite these positive trends, the external current account deficit widened to approximately 20 percent of GDP in 2025, driven by strong import demand and weak exports.

EU Accession as a Catalyst for Reform

The IMF underscored that Moldova's EU accession process and the associated EU Growth Plan present a 'unique opportunity to boost productivity, lift long-term growth, and raise living standards'. Seizing this opportunity, however, necessitates 'decisive reforms to address structural shortcomings and strong macroeconomic management and policy making to sustain reforms while safeguarding macroeconomic stability'.

Key areas for reform highlighted by the mission include:

• Enhancing energy security through electricity interconnections, expanded generation, and energy-efficiency programs.
• Resuming governance reforms to strengthen the business environment and ensure effective implementation of the EU Growth Plan.
• Improving public investment management processes and broader fiscal reforms to enhance spending efficiency.

Moldova officially opened EU accession negotiations in June 2024 and aims to open 'Cluster 1: Fundamentals' of the negotiations by June 30, 2025. The European Commission has affirmed that while its support for Moldova is not directly tied to an IMF program, ambitious reforms are crucial for the country's accession path.

Fiscal Policy and Future Engagement

Fiscal policy in 2025 was supportive, with the deficit projected to increase to 4.5 percent of GDP, largely due to increases in current spending and untargeted household support. While Moldova did not receive the final $170 million IMF tranche in 2025, the Ministry of Finance stated that this did not impact the country's fiscal stability, and discussions for renewed cooperation are planned.