Bolivia Grapples with Significant Commercial Deficit in 2025

Bolivia's Commercial Deficit Persists Through 2025

Bolivia has faced a significant commercial deficit throughout 2025, with official reports indicating an accumulated negative balance. The country registered a commercial deficit of $580 million between January and August 2025, according to data from the Instituto Boliviano de Comercio Exterior (IBCE) and the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). This figure saw a slight reduction, reaching an accumulated deficit of $551 million by September 2025, as reported by the IBCE.

The persistent trade imbalance reflects broader economic challenges confronting the Plurinational State of Bolivia, including a decline in key export revenues and increased import costs.

Key Factors Contributing to the Deficit

Several interconnected factors have contributed to Bolivia's commercial deficit in 2025:

• Declining Hydrocarbon Production: Natural gas, historically a cornerstone of Bolivia's exports, continues its rapid decline, significantly impacting export and fiscal revenues. Natural gas constitutes approximately 28% of total exports.
• Impact of Climate Change: Adverse climatic events, such as droughts and 'El Niño' effects, have severely affected agricultural production, leading to a drop in soy crops and related manufacturing exports.
• Internal Disruptions: Social conflicts and road blockades have hampered economic activity, disrupting transportation and the supply of critical inputs.
• Foreign Exchange Scarcity: Bolivia is experiencing a severe shortage of U.S. dollars, leading to a parallel market where the dollar trades at a significantly higher rate than the official exchange. This scarcity makes imports more expensive and complicates foreign trade.
• High Import Costs: Bolivia has become a net importer of fuels, with more than half of its gasoline and 86% of its diesel being imported. High import costs, particularly for these essential goods, exacerbate the trade imbalance.

Broader Economic Implications

The commercial deficit is part of a wider array of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in Bolivia. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in May 2025 that Bolivia faces 'acute macroeconomic imbalances' due to declining gas production, sociopolitical tensions, and climate shocks.

The country's real GDP growth has moderated, with forecasts for 2025 ranging from 1.1% (IMF) to 1.5% (World Bank), well below government expectations. Inflation has surged, reaching 24% year-on-year as of June 2025. International reserves have been critically low, and the fiscal deficit, which surpassed 10% of GDP in 2023-2024, has largely been financed by the central bank.

Trade Partners and Outlook

Despite the overall contraction in foreign trade, China has emerged as Bolivia's primary export destination, accounting for 18% of total exports, followed by Brazil and Japan. However, China also contributes to Bolivia's largest bilateral deficit. In contrast, Japan has registered the highest trade surplus with Bolivia.

Economists and international bodies emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive stabilization programs and fiscal consolidation to address Bolivia's economic challenges and restore macroeconomic stability.