New Zealand Faces Significant 'Exit Wave' as Net Migration Hits Decade Low

Introduction: A Shifting Demographic Landscape

New Zealand is currently navigating a significant demographic shift, colloquially termed an 'exit wave,' as the nation records its lowest net migration figures since 2013, excluding COVID-affected years. This trend is characterized by a substantial increase in citizens departing the country and a corresponding decrease in foreign arrivals, raising concerns about the nation's economic and social future.

Migration Statistics Reveal Stark Trends

According to data released by Stats NZ, New Zealand's net migration gain plummeted to just 12,400 in the year ending September 2025. This marks a sharp decline from the 42,400 net gains recorded in the year ending September 2024. The primary driver of this downturn is a record number of New Zealand citizens choosing to leave. In the 12 months to September 2025, an estimated 72,700 New Zealanders departed, resulting in a net loss of 46,400 citizens for the period. Conversely, the net gain from non-New Zealand citizens stood at 58,800, with 112,600 arrivals and 53,800 departures. Overall, total migrant arrivals were 138,900, while departures reached 126,400 in the same September 2025 year.

Factors Fueling the Exodus

The significant outflow of New Zealanders is largely attributed to a combination of economic pressures and the allure of better opportunities abroad. Key contributing factors include:

• High Cost of Living: Many citizens are reportedly frustrated by the increasing cost of living within New Zealand.
• Slow Economic Growth: The country's economy has experienced weak growth, with some reports indicating a deep recession and a decline in per-capita GDP since the 1990s.
• Stagnant Wages and Unemployment: Stagnant wages and rising unemployment, which reached 4.7% in mid-2024, are pushing individuals to seek more lucrative prospects elsewhere.
• Housing Unaffordability: The housing crisis, characterized by rapidly increasing house prices, remains a significant concern for many.
• Opportunities in Australia: A substantial portion of departing New Zealanders, estimated between 53% and 75%, are relocating to neighboring Australia, drawn by higher wages and more abundant job opportunities.

Immigration Minister Erica Stanford acknowledged that 'Kiwis will go overseas to seek better opportunities' during economic cycles, expressing an expectation that they will return when conditions improve. Finance Minister Nicola Willis emphasized that the record departures underscore the need to grow the economy and create more job opportunities domestically.

Implications and Outlook

The 'exit wave' carries potential implications for New Zealand's labor market and public services. Economists warn that a continued 'hollowing out' of the workforce could exacerbate existing labor shortages and place additional strain on essential services. ASB senior economist Mark Smith noted that the decline in immigration gains 'will erode a key leg of support for the New Zealand housing market, domestic demand and labour market capacity.' The government has signaled plans for rule changes to encourage further immigration and boost tourism as part of a broader strategy to fuel economic growth. However, experts like agribusiness consultant Keith Woodford suggest the problem runs deeper than recent migration trends, pointing to a long-term decline in per-capita GDP growth.