New Zealand Faces Record 'Exit Wave' as Citizens Depart Amid Economic Headwinds

Shifting Migration Landscape

New Zealand is currently grappling with a significant 'exit wave,' characterized by a record number of its citizens departing the country and a notable decrease in foreign arrivals. This trend has resulted in a substantial decline in net migration, reaching a gain of just 10,600 in the year to August 2025. This figure represents a sharp drop from the 128,300 net gain recorded in 2023 and is considerably lower than the pre-COVID-19 long-term average of 28,200. The phenomenon is largely attributed to a combination of high living costs, slow economic growth, and a challenging labor market within the country.

Provisional data for 2024 indicated a net migration gain of 27,100, a significant decrease from the 128,300 net gain in 2023. The net migration gain for the year ended September 2025 was 12,400, down from 42,400 in the same period the previous year. For New Zealand citizens, there was a provisional net migration loss of 47,100 in 2024, an increase from 43,300 in 2023. This loss was driven by approximately 72,000 migrant departures of New Zealand citizens, which significantly outnumbered the 24,900 arrivals. The net migration loss for New Zealand citizens reached 46,400 in the year to September 2025, primarily due to 72,700 departures.

A substantial portion of these departing New Zealand citizens, estimated at 56% in 2024 and 58% in August 2025, are relocating to Australia. The appeal of Australia is often linked to higher average weekly incomes, established work and residency rights, and the availability of relocation packages for skilled workers.

Concurrently, the net migration gain of non-New Zealand citizens also saw a decline, falling to 74,200 in 2024 from 171,600 in 2023. This reduction was largely due to a decrease in migrant arrivals, with 130,900 non-New Zealand citizens arriving in 2024, down from 207,700 in 2023. Over half of this decrease was attributed to fewer work visas being issued. Citizens from India, the Philippines, and China collectively accounted for two-thirds of this decline in annual net migration of non-New Zealand citizens.

Economic Pressures and Contributing Factors

The primary drivers behind this 'exit wave' are economic. New Zealand has been experiencing increased cost of living, rising interest rates, and growing unemployment. The economy did not grow in the first half of 2025, leading to an uptick in unemployment and a cautious approach to hiring by businesses. The country is currently in a deep recession, with its per capita GDP having fallen by 4.6% since the third quarter of 2022.

Key economic challenges include:

• Housing Crisis: House prices surged by 256% between 2000 and 2021, significantly outpacing wage growth. This has led to 46% of renters spending over 30% of their income on housing.
• Stagnant Wages and Low Productivity: New Zealand's productivity per hour is reportedly 20% lower than the OECD average, contributing to stagnant wages.
• Weak Labor Market: The country's labor market has softened, with job losses occurring, including in the public sector.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic's strict border controls and slow reopening also played a role, as it inadvertently deterred international talent and affected New Zealand's reputation for openness. Many professionals perceived it as 'harder to get in, harder to get ahead' in the country.

Government Response and Outlook

In response to these migration trends, the New Zealand government has implemented changes to its immigration policies. In April 2024, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford announced immediate adjustments to the Accredited Employer Worker Visa (AEWV) scheme. These changes include the introduction of English language requirements, minimum skills and work experience thresholds for most AEWV roles, and a reduction in the maximum continuous stay for some roles from five years to three years. The government's stated aim is to attract highly skilled migrants, such as secondary teachers, while ensuring that New Zealanders are prioritized for jobs where no skill shortages exist.

Furthermore, the government has halted plans to add 11 roles to the Green List and closed the Work to Residence pathway for bus and truck drivers. The New Zealand Migrant Settlement and Integration Strategy (NZMSIS) was also updated in 2023 to better support migrants with a pathway to permanent residency.

Immigration Minister Stanford acknowledged that New Zealanders often seek opportunities overseas during economic downturns, with the expectation that many will return as the economy improves. Finance Minister Nicola Willis underscored the government's focus on economic growth to create more jobs and opportunities domestically. However, some officials have expressed concerns about the potential for a 'hollowing out' of the workforce and increased strain on public services if the current trends persist.