Caribbean Disturbance Nears Cyclone Status, Indirectly Threatening Costa Rica with Heavy Rains

High Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Caribbean

Experts are closely monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, which the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned a 90% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and maintaining that high probability over the next seven days. The system, identified as Tropical Wave #40 by Costa Rica's National Meteorological Institute (IMN) and Invest AL98 by the NHC, is currently situated in the eastern Caribbean, between Puerto Rico and Venezuela, and is moving westward. Should it strengthen into a named storm, it would be called Melissa.

Indirect Impacts Expected for Costa Rica

While a direct landfall on Costa Rica is not anticipated, the IMN has issued an informational advisory highlighting significant indirect effects. The primary concern is the system's capacity to draw moisture from the Pacific Ocean, which could destabilize the atmosphere over Costa Rica and lead to a substantial increase in precipitation. This enhanced rainy activity is forecast to particularly affect communities along the nation's Pacific slope and surrounding areas during the second half of this week.

Increased Risk of Flooding and Landslides

The intensified downpours raise concerns about several potential hazards for Costa Rica. These include:

• Localized flooding
• Saturated soils
• An elevated risk of landslides in vulnerable, mountainous regions

Costa Rica is currently in its rainy season, and many areas already have saturated soils, which exacerbates the risk posed by additional heavy rainfall. The IMN emphasizes that the atmospheric conditions are favorable for the system to evolve into a tropical depression between October 23 and October 26 as it traverses the central or northern Caribbean Sea.

Vigilance Advised as Track Remains Uncertain

The exact trajectory of the developing system remains subject to some uncertainty. While some forecast models suggest a potential northward turn towards Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic), others indicate a continued westward movement towards Central America. The NHC has also advised residents in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba to monitor the disturbance for potential heavy rain, flooding, strong winds, and rough surf. Costa Rican authorities urge residents, especially those in the Pacific region, to stay informed through official channels and be prepared for adverse weather conditions as the situation evolves.