IMF Lowers Greece's Growth Forecast to 2%, Urges Continued Reforms

IMF Revises Greece's Growth Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its economic growth projections for Greece, lowering the forecast to 2% for both 2025 and 2026. This revision, detailed in the IMF's autumn economic outlook and Fiscal Monitor report released on October 14-15, 2025, marks a slight decrease from the 2.3% growth anticipated for 2024 and the 2.1% projected for 2025 in its April 2024 review. Despite the downward adjustment, Greece's projected growth rate is expected to remain nearly double the eurozone average, which stands at 1.3% for the same period.

Persistent Debt and Reform Imperatives

The IMF underscored that while Greece has successfully exited its bailout programs, it remains one of Europe's most indebted economies. This high debt load continues to influence credit ratings and market confidence. The Fund stressed the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline and ensuring reform continuity to safeguard credibility and prevent the resurgence of vulnerabilities. Key areas for continued reform include:

• Digitalization
• Justice system efficiency
• Education
• Upskilling and reskilling initiatives
• Pension system adjustments
• Transparency standards

The IMF commended Greece's efforts in fiscal consolidation, particularly through stronger revenues and reforms aimed at combating tax evasion, which reportedly increased revenues by almost 3% last year. The Fund recommends maintaining primary surpluses above 2% of GDP over the medium term to bolster debt sustainability. Public investment in green and digital transitions, improved efficiency of social spending, and containment of public sector wage and pension growth were also highlighted as crucial.

Broader Economic Landscape

Beyond growth, the IMF's reports provided a comprehensive overview of Greece's economic indicators:

• Inflation: Projected to reach 3.1% in 2025 before easing to 2.5% by 2026.
• Unemployment: Expected to continue its gradual decline, reaching 8.4% in 2026, down from 9% in 2025 and 10.1% in the previous year.
• Current Account Deficit: Forecasted to remain in negative territory, at -5.8% of GDP in 2025 and -5.3% in 2026.
• Public Debt: Anticipated to decrease significantly, from 154.8% of GDP in 2024 to 146.7% in 2025, and further to 141.9% in 2026, with a projected drop to 130.2% by 2030.
• Primary Surplus: Projected at 3.2% of GDP in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026.

The IMF's assessment indicates that while Greece's recovery demonstrates resilience, it remains susceptible to global economic shocks and requires sustained commitment to structural modernization and disciplined fiscal management to achieve durable and inclusive long-term growth.