Japan's Ruling Coalition Collapses After 26 Years, Plunging Political Landscape into Uncertainty

Historic Alliance Dissolves Amid Funding Scandal

The long-standing 26-year coalition between Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, Komeito, officially dissolved on October 10, 2025. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito informed newly elected LDP President Sanae Takaichi of the decision, marking a significant shift in Japan's political landscape. The breakdown was primarily attributed to Komeito's dissatisfaction with the LDP's 'insufficient' response to a high-profile political funding scandal and ideological divergences with Takaichi.

The political funding scandal, which emerged last year, involved allegations of undeclared income from fundraising event ticket sales, leading to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Komeito had pushed for stricter regulations on political donations, a proposal they felt the LDP failed to adequately address. Further exacerbating tensions was Takaichi's appointment of Koichi Hagiuda, a politician embroiled in the scandal, to a senior party post, which caused 'particular consternation' to Komeito.

Takaichi's Premiership Bid in Jeopardy

The collapse of the coalition has cast considerable doubt on Sanae Takaichi's path to becoming Japan's first female prime minister. Takaichi, a staunch conservative and protégé of the late Shinzo Abe, was elected LDP leader just days before the split. Her confirmation as prime minister requires parliamentary approval, which now appears challenging without Komeito's support.

Komeito's decision also stemmed from ideological differences with Takaichi, whose conservative views, including her visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, were unpalatable to Komeito's pacifist-leaning base, which is closely tied to the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito stated that his party's lawmakers would vote for him, not Takaichi, as prime minister in the upcoming parliamentary session.

Political Realignments and Electoral Impact

With Komeito's withdrawal, the LDP no longer holds a majority in either house of parliament, necessitating a scramble for new alliances. The LDP is reportedly seeking to form a new coalition with other opposition parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party or the Democratic Party for the People (DPP).

Meanwhile, opposition parties are exploring the possibility of a unified candidate to challenge Takaichi. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) has suggested supporting DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki for the premiership. The dissolution of the coalition is expected to have significant electoral repercussions, with estimates suggesting the LDP could lose 10,000 to 20,000 votes per single-seat constituency in future elections without Komeito's backing, potentially reversing results in up to 23 constituencies.

An extraordinary parliamentary session is anticipated as early as October 20 to elect Japan's next prime minister, setting the stage for a period of heightened political instability and potential realignment.