German Intelligence Chief Warns of Russia's Readiness for 'Hot Confrontation' with Europe

German Intelligence Chief Issues Stark Warning to Lawmakers

Martin Jaeger, the head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND), delivered a sobering assessment to German lawmakers on October 13, 2025, warning that Russia is ready for a 'hot confrontation' with Europe at any moment. Speaking during a public committee hearing in the Bundestag, Jaeger stressed that Europe is 'already under fire today' and cannot afford to be complacent about the timeline of a potential Russian attack.

Jaeger, who previously served as ambassador to Kyiv, highlighted Russia's escalating hybrid operations and continuous testing of European borders as clear indicators of Moscow's intentions. He stated, 'We can't simply wait and assume that a potential Russian attack won't come before 2029.'

Escalating Hybrid Operations and Border Probing

The BND chief detailed a wide array of tactics employed by Russia as part of its hybrid warfare strategy against European countries. These include:

• Drone incursions and airspace violations by fighter aircraft.
• Cyberattacks and sabotage acts.
• Disinformation campaigns and propaganda.
• Attempts to manipulate elections and public opinion.
• Espionage and contract killings.

Jaeger asserted that 'Russia is concealing its true intentions, but in fact it's probing our borders.' He described the current state of affairs as 'at best, Europe is in a state of cold peace — one that could flare into a hot confrontation at any moment.'

Recent weeks have seen a surge in tensions, with Russian drones and aircraft repeatedly violating allied airspace, including incidents that disrupted air traffic in Germany, Denmark, and Norway. In early September, Polish and allied forces reportedly shot down several Russian drones over Poland's territory.

Strategic Objectives and European Response

According to Jaeger, Russia's actions are designed to undermine NATO, destabilize European democracies, and divide and intimidate societies. He warned that Moscow interprets restraint as weakness, emphasizing, 'We must confront our adversaries wherever necessary.'

The German intelligence chief's warning aligns with similar concerns voiced by other Western officials. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has also cautioned that Russia could be ready for an open military clash with the alliance within five years. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted that the ongoing hybrid campaign signifies that Europe is 'already no longer at peace.'

Jaeger indicated that the BND would become more operational and take higher risks to gather intelligence, stating, 'We will take higher risks in a targeted and consistent manner. This will enable us to obtain intelligence that reveals what our opponents are aiming for and, ideally, exposes their weaknesses.' This new approach, he suggested, would require adapting the BND law to the 'realities of our new era' and securing the trust and support of politicians and the public.

Conclusion

The stark warning from Germany's top intelligence official underscores a heightened sense of urgency regarding Russia's aggressive posture towards Europe. With hybrid operations intensifying and borders being tested, the message to European lawmakers is clear: the continent must prepare for potential further escalation and cannot underestimate the immediate threat posed by Russia.