China's Exports and Imports Soar Past Forecasts in September Amidst Renewed Trade Tensions

Robust Growth Defies Expectations

China's exports and imports demonstrated significant growth in September 2025, surpassing analyst forecasts despite a backdrop of ongoing global trade tensions. Data released by the General Administration of Customs (GACC) revealed that exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, accelerating from a 4.4% rise in August. Imports also saw a substantial surge, climbing 7.4% year-on-year, a notable increase from the 1.3% growth recorded the previous month.

These figures considerably outpaced market predictions. Analysts had forecast export growth of approximately 6%, with some estimates as low as 5.65%, while import growth was generally expected to be around 1.5%. The total value of exports reached approximately $328.6 billion, and imports stood at about $238.1 billion for the month. This export growth marked the fastest pace since March, and the import surge was the strongest since April 2024.

Diversification Amidst Trade Tensions

The strong trade performance comes amidst a period of heightened trade tensions, particularly with the United States. US President Donald Trump had threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and tighten export controls on critical software, while China retaliated by expanding restrictions on rare earth exports. Despite these challenges, Chinese manufacturers have actively diversified their markets, reducing reliance on the US.

Trade with the US remained weak in September, with Chinese exports to the US falling by 27% and imports from the US dropping by 16.1%. In contrast, China's trade with other regions saw significant increases:

• Exports to Southeast Asia grew by 15.6%.
• Exports to Africa increased by 56%.
• Exports to Latin America rose by 15%.
• Exports to the European Union climbed by 14.2%.
• Exports to Japan increased by 1.8%, South Korea by 7.0%, Taiwan by 11.0%, and Australia by 10.7%.

This strategic shift has been crucial in mitigating the impact of tariffs.

Economic Resilience and Outlook

China recorded a trade surplus of approximately $90.45 billion in September. While this figure was below analyst expectations of around $98.96 billion, it still represented an increase from the $81.69 billion recorded in September of the previous year. The surplus narrowed from $102.33 billion in August.

Analysts attribute China's resilience to its diversified export base and competitive pricing. Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis, commented that 'China's exports continue to show resilience given the low costs and limited choices for replacement globally despite the higher tariffs.' Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA, added that 'China's exports have remained resilient despite US tariffs, thanks to a diversified export market and strong competitiveness.' While the strong performance underscores the adaptability of Chinese exporters, economists like Zichun Huang of Capital Economics caution that 'the latest re-escalation in tensions with the US still poses some downside risks.'