Japan's 2025 Rice Harvest Forecast to Reach Nine-Year High

Record Forecast for Japan's Staple Rice Production

Japan's 2025 staple rice harvest is projected to reach a significant milestone, with the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) forecasting a total of 7,477,000 tons. This figure represents a nine-year high and an increase of 10% compared to the previous year's yield. The agriculture ministry announced this forecast on Friday, October 10, 2025, indicating a potential shift in the nation's rice supply dynamics.

The projected harvest amount is expected to surpass 7 million tons for the first time since 2022. The estimate was compiled from data on harvested rice and the number of preharvest rice ears counted as of September 25, at which point rice cropping was approximately 60% complete across the country. Additionally, the ministry provided a 'sieve opening-based' yield forecast of 7,153,000 tons, an increase of 634,000 tons from the year prior.

Context and Contributing Factors

This optimistic forecast comes after a period of challenges for Japan's rice supply. The summer of 2024 saw a significant rice shortage, leading to soaring prices. This scarcity was attributed to a combination of factors, including poor harvests in 2023 due to extreme weather conditions like heatwaves, and long-standing agricultural policies that had historically encouraged a reduction in rice acreage.

The anticipated rise in the 2025 harvest is largely driven by an expansion in the area dedicated to rice cultivation, motivated by increased demand from both consumers and restaurants. Favorable weather conditions throughout the current growing season have also played a crucial role in boosting yield expectations. While per capita rice consumption in Japan has seen a gradual decline over several decades, increased demand from a growing number of foreign visitors and higher household purchases have contributed to the renewed interest in domestic production.

Market Implications and Food Security

The latest harvest estimate suggests the possibility of an expanding surplus in the rice supply. However, it remains uncertain whether this increased production will lead to a reduction in retail rice prices, which have previously surged. Japan maintains a high level of self-sufficiency for rice, estimated at 99%. Despite this, the country's overall calorie-based food self-sufficiency rate for fiscal 2024 remained at 38%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive year.

The projected substantial increase in the 2025 rice harvest could help stabilize the domestic market and alleviate concerns that arose from recent shortages, reinforcing Japan's food security in its staple grain.