Prime Minister Carney to Meet President Trump Amid Ongoing Trade Tensions and CUSMA Review Preparations

High-Stakes Meeting on Bilateral Trade Issues

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump next week, with critical discussions expected to focus on the ongoing dispute over steel and aluminum tariffs and the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). This anticipated meeting underscores the continued efforts by both nations to navigate complex trade relations that have seen periods of significant tension.

Prime Minister Carney, who assumed office on March 14, 2025, as Canada's 24th Prime Minister, previously met with President Trump on May 6, 2025, at the White House. That earlier encounter also centered on trade and tariffs, with President Trump advocating for Canada to become part of the United States and maintaining his stance on tariffs.

Tariff Disputes Remain a Central Issue

The steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have been a significant point of contention. On March 12, 2025, the U.S. implemented a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports from Canada, citing national security concerns. These measures followed President Trump's earlier announcement on March 1, 2018, of global tariffs on these products, despite previous indications that Canadian products might be exempt. Canada swiftly retaliated by imposing its own countermeasures, including tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum, totaling up to $16.6 billion CAD ($12.8 billion USD).

The trade conflict escalated further with the U.S. threatening to increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, a threat that was later walked back. The ongoing tariffs have led to market volatility and strained diplomatic relations, prompting both federal and provincial governments in Canada to implement support programs for affected industries.

CUSMA Review on the Horizon

Another key item on the agenda for the upcoming meeting is the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). The agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and came into force on July 1, 2020, is scheduled for its first joint review in July 2026.

Canada has already initiated its preparations for this critical review, with Global Affairs Canada launching public consultations on September 20, 2025. These consultations are set to conclude on November 3, 2025, gathering input to inform Canada's approach to the review. The purpose of the review is to assess the agreement's operation and determine whether it should be extended for another 16 years beyond its current termination date of July 1, 2036. If an extension is not agreed upon, the agreement would enter a phase of annual reviews until its expiry.

Broader Context of Bilateral Relations

The meeting takes place against a backdrop of complex and sometimes contentious Canada-U.S. relations during President Trump's tenure. His administration's trade policies and rhetoric, including suggestions of Canada becoming the '51st state,' have fueled Canadian nationalism and a desire for stable leadership. Prime Minister Carney, an economist and former central banker, has positioned himself as a leader capable of navigating economic turmoil and confronting U.S. trade aggression.

The discussions next week are crucial for addressing immediate trade irritants and setting a constructive tone for the future of North American economic integration, particularly as the CUSMA review approaches.