Slovak Central Bank Significantly Lowers Economic Growth Forecasts for 2025 and 2026

NBS Presents Autumn Forecast with Reduced Projections

BRATISLAVA, Slovakia – The National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) announced a significant downward revision of its economic growth forecasts for the coming years. On Thursday, September 25, 2025, the central bank projected that the Slovak economy would grow by just 0.8% in 2025 and further slow to 0.5% in 2026. This updated outlook, presented by NBS Governor Peter Kažimír, marks a substantial cut from previous estimates.

Sharp Revision from Previous Estimates

The new figures represent a considerable reduction compared to the NBS's earlier forecast issued in June. At that time, the central bank had anticipated growth of 1.2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026. Governor Kažimír highlighted the severity of the situation, stating, 'We're living in an era of trade wars, real wars, massive geopolitical tension, and political strains both in Europe and globally, as well as here at home – all of which weigh on any economy.'

Fiscal Consolidation and Global Headwinds Cited as Key Factors

The primary reasons for the revised outlook are a combination of domestic fiscal consolidation measures and a deteriorating external environment. The government's necessary consolidation of public finances, while unavoidable, is expected to act as a drag on economic activity. NBS Executive Director Michal Horváth noted that while the government speaks of €2.7 billion in savings from its consolidation package, the NBS estimates the realistic figure at €2.1 billion, which will still have a major macroeconomic impact. Global headwinds, including increased global protectionism, US tariffs, and a broader European slowdown, are also impacting Slovakia's export-driven economy.

Broader Economic Implications and Outlook

The central bank's autumn forecast also detailed other economic challenges. Inflation is expected to reach 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, influenced by factors such as the fading effects of VAT hikes and reduced energy subsidies. Governor Kažimír warned of potential problems in the labor market, including slower growth in real wages and a projected loss of around 30,000 jobs during the forecast period. Public finances remain a significant concern, with public debt anticipated to exceed 60% of GDP in 2025. The NBS emphasized that fiscal discipline is crucial for the country's stability, despite the associated costs.