Moldova Grapples with Deep Political Polarization Ahead of September 28 Parliamentary Elections

Introduction: A Nation Divided Ahead of Crucial Vote

Moldova is experiencing significant political polarization in the lead-up to its parliamentary elections scheduled for September 28, 2025. The country, a candidate for European Union membership, is navigating complex domestic challenges and external influences, primarily from Russia. Recent developments, including the sentencing of Gagauzia Governor Eugenia Guțsul and the disqualification of several opposition parties, have intensified the political climate, underscoring the high stakes of the upcoming vote.

Gagauzia Governor Eugenia Guțsul Sentenced for Illicit Financing

On August 5, 2025, Eugenia Guțsul, the Governor (Bashkan) of Moldova's autonomous region of Gagauzia, was sentenced to a seven-year custodial sentence and a 40 million lei fine (approximately €2.28 million) by a Moldovan court. The charges stemmed from her alleged involvement in the illegal financing of the now-banned Șor Party and an electoral competitor. Prosecutors stated that Guțsul, who served as a secretary in the Monitoring, Planning, and Control Department of the Șor Party between 2019 and 2022, systematically funneled undeclared funds into Moldova, primarily from an organized criminal group in Russia.

The sentence also includes a five-year ban on holding political or financial activities. Guțsul has vehemently denied the accusations, asserting that the case is politically motivated. The Kremlin echoed this sentiment, condemning the sentence as politically driven. In a show of defiance, the People's Assembly of Gagauzia voted on August 6 to reject the court's decision and maintain Guțsul in office, arguing that the verdict undermines Gagauzia's special legal status. The United Nations has also drawn attention to the situation, emphasizing the importance of the rule of law and due process.

Exclusion of Opposition Parties Ahead of Elections

Further contributing to the polarized environment, Moldova's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has excluded several opposition parties from participating in the September 28 parliamentary elections. On August 3, 2025, the CEC barred parties including the Modern Democratic Party of Moldova (PDMM) and several entities associated with the pro-Russian Victory bloc (Pobeda bloc). These included the 'Alternative Forces for the Salvation of Moldova,' the 'Chance' Party, and the 'Victory' Party.

The exclusions were primarily due to procedural irregularities, such as failures to register data changes with the Public Services Agency, and issues related to donor declarations and membership lists. The Supreme Court of Justice upheld some of these decisions on August 16, 2025, clarifying that the right to be elected is contingent upon fulfilling 'predictable legal requirements' and that the measures were not aimed at punishing political ideologies but at ensuring electoral integrity. Many of the excluded parties are linked to fugitive oligarch Ilan Șor, who was sentenced to 15 years in prison in Moldova.

The Broader Context: EU Aspirations vs. Russian Influence

The upcoming elections are widely seen as a critical juncture for Moldova's geopolitical alignment. The ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), a pro-European party, aims to continue Moldova's path toward EU integration, having secured candidate status in 2022 and opened accession negotiations in 2024. However, it faces strong opposition from pro-Russian forces, which Moscow is accused of supporting through disinformation, electoral interference, and financial backing.

Polls suggest that PAS may struggle to retain its outright majority, potentially leading to a coalition government. The outcome will determine whether Moldova continues its westward trajectory or risks being drawn back into Russia's sphere of influence. The political landscape is further complicated by domestic frustrations over inflation, corruption, and the pace of reforms, which pro-Russian actors are reportedly exploiting. The integrity of this vote is not only crucial for Moldova's future but also serves as a barometer for democratic resilience in the region.