One Nation Sees Boost in Primary Support
The latest Roy Morgan Poll, surveying Australian federal voting intention from February 23 to March 1, 2026, indicates a notable increase in primary support for One Nation. The party's primary vote rose by 1.5 percentage points, reaching 22%. This shift comes as both major parties, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and the Liberal-National Coalition (L-NP), recorded slight declines in their support.
Major Parties Experience Minor Setbacks
According to the poll, the ALP's primary support saw a marginal decrease of 0.5 percentage points, settling at 30.5%. Similarly, the L-NP Coalition's primary vote also fell by 0.5 percentage points, bringing their support to 23.5%. The Greens also experienced a dip, with their primary support down 1 percentage point to 11.5%. Conversely, support for Other Parties/Independents increased by 0.5 percentage points to 12.5%.
Two-Party Preferred and Government Confidence
On a two-party preferred basis, where electors stated how they would 'vote' their preferences, the ALP leads the L-NP Coalition 56% to 44%. This represents a 1.5 percentage point increase for the ALP and a corresponding 1.5 percentage point decrease for the L-NP. When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, the ALP's lead is narrower, at 53.5% (down 0.5 percentage points) compared to the L-NP's 46.5% (up 0.5 percentage points).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating also registered a decline, dropping 4.5 points to 67.5. A rising majority of 58% (up 1.5 percentage points) of Australians now believe the country is 'going in the wrong direction', while only 26.5% (down 3 percentage points) feel it is 'going in the right direction'. Approximately 6% of electors remained uncommitted regarding their voting intention. The survey was conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,554 electors.
5 Comments
Bermudez
It's understandable that many feel the country is going in the wrong direction given the declining confidence rating, yet a simple shift to minor parties doesn't automatically guarantee improved governance or stability.
Coccinella
While One Nation's rise clearly reflects voter dissatisfaction with the majors, it's important to consider if their policies offer a practical or unifying direction for the country.
Muchacho
ALP still leading two-party preferred, that's what matters in the end.
ZmeeLove
The fragmentation of primary votes, with both major parties and the Greens dipping, highlights a genuine desire for alternative voices, but it also creates a more unpredictable and potentially less stable political landscape.
Habibi
The ALP's continued lead on two-party preferred still positions them ahead, but the overall dip for major parties suggests a deeper voter frustration that requires more than just minor adjustments.