Saudi Arabia Challenges Israel-UAE Alignment in Somalia, Citing Regional Instability and Vision 2030 Threats

Riyadh Expresses Grave Concern Over Somaliland Recognition

Saudi Arabia has voiced significant apprehension regarding the recent alignment between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Somalia, specifically following Israel's recognition of Somaliland's unilateral declaration of independence on December 26, 2025. This move has been widely condemned by international bodies, including the African Union, Arab League, European Union, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Riyadh considers the preservation of Somalia's territorial integrity as fundamental to the security of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, critical maritime trade corridors. From the Saudi perspective, the support extended to Somaliland by Israel and the UAE poses a substantial threat to Saudi interests and broader regional stability.

Threat to Vision 2030 and Regional Stability

The Saudi leadership perceives the Israeli and Emirati engagement with the self-declared breakaway republic of Somaliland as a direct challenge to its strategic objectives, including the ambitious Vision 2030. This national transformation plan, aimed at economic development and diversification, relies heavily on a stable regional environment. Saudi officials have indicated that support for fragmentation in fragile states like Somalia undermines the stability required for the success of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's vision. The potential for increased chaos in the Horn of Africa is seen as 'kryptonite' to these long-term economic goals, which necessitate secure trade routes and a predictable geopolitical landscape.

UAE's Role and Saudi Countermeasures

The UAE's involvement in Somaliland includes significant economic investments, notably a $442 million development in the Berbera Port. While Abu Dhabi has not formally recognized Somaliland's independence, its actions and its refusal to join regional condemnations of Israel's recognition are interpreted as tacit support. This assertive foreign policy by the UAE in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, often involving support for non-state actors, has become a point of increasing friction with Saudi Arabia. In response, Saudi Arabia has taken concrete steps to counter this perceived threat:

• Riyadh mobilized regional censure against Israel's recognition of Somaliland.
• On February 9, 2026, Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding on military cooperation with the federal government of Somalia in Mogadishu, aiming to strengthen bilateral defense cooperation through enhanced technical support, training, and force development.
• Saudi Arabia is actively aligning with countries such as Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, which also prioritize Somalia's territorial integrity.
• The Somali government, in turn, terminated all agreements with the UAE on January 12, 2026, citing concerns over the undermining of its sovereignty.
• Saudi Arabia is also seeking U.S. support for Somalia's territorial integrity, opposing efforts by Israel and the UAE to empower separatist movements.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

This evolving situation in the Horn of Africa underscores a growing divergence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with an emerging 'UAE-Israel axis of fragmentation' contrasting with a Saudi-led alliance that emphasizes the preservation of territorial integrity and support for central governments. Concerns also extend to the possibility of an Israeli military presence and port access in Somaliland, which could further impact the security of vital maritime trade routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Riyadh aims to maintain an Arab-led security framework in this crucial corridor, viewing the current developments as a significant challenge to regional stability and its own strategic interests.