Peso Hits Historic Low
The Cuban peso (CUP) has fallen to a historic low against the US dollar (USD) in the country's informal market, reaching 500 CUP per 1 USD on Wednesday, February 11, 2026. This marks a significant depreciation of 15% since the beginning of the year. The informal exchange rate, widely tracked by independent platforms like El Toque, is often considered a more accurate gauge of Cuba's economic health than official rates.
For many Cubans, the informal market is the primary avenue for currency exchange, despite the existence of multiple official rates. These official rates include 24 CUP per USD for certain business transactions, 120 CUP per USD at banks and Cadeca exchange bureaus (subject to an 8% conversion fee), and a new floating rate introduced in December 2024 that started at 410 CUP per USD and has since reached 455 CUP per USD.
Impact on Daily Life
The plummeting value of the peso has severe implications for the average Cuban citizen. The average state salary, approximately 7,000 Cuban pesos, now equates to only about $14 USD in the informal market. The cost of basic necessities has soared, with a carton of eggs, for instance, costing around 3,000 Cuban pesos. This disparity highlights the immense struggle faced by residents in affording essential goods and services.
Tightening US Pressure on Oil Supplies
The currency's decline is significantly exacerbated by intensified US pressure on Cuba's oil supplies. On January 29, 2026, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency concerning Cuba and threatening tariffs on any country supplying oil to the island. This action followed a US military operation on January 3 in Venezuela, which led to a halt in Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba. Subsequently, Mexico also ceased its oil deliveries to the island.
The resulting fuel shortages have triggered a severe energy crisis across Cuba. On February 10, 2026, Cuban aviation authorities announced a month-long suspension of jet fuel services at major airports, including Havana's José Martí International, prompting airlines like Air Canada to suspend flights to the country. The scarcity of fuel has led to widespread rolling blackouts, strained medical facilities with reports of canceled surgeries, and disruptions in food supply chains.
Broader Economic Crisis
Cuba is currently grappling with its worst economic crisis in 30 years, characterized by prolonged stagnation, high inflation, and severe shortages of basic goods. Decades of US sanctions have played a substantial role in this economic distress, with policies introduced by the Trump administration since 2017-2021 further intensifying the pressure.
Internal factors also contribute to the crisis, including an inefficient state-controlled economic model, misguided policies such as the 2021 'Ordering Task' monetary reform, and an overemphasis on unproductive investments in tourism. The Cuban economy has become increasingly dollarized, and the country reported a 1.1% GDP contraction and 24% inflation in 2024. The government has also projected a public deficit equivalent to nearly 20% of its GDP for the current year.
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