Niti Aayog Report Outlines India's $22.7 Trillion Path to Net-Zero by 2070 Amidst Rising Coal Use Until 2047

India's Ambitious Net-Zero Target Requires Trillions in Investment

India's government think tank, Niti Aayog, has unveiled a series of reports titled 'Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: An Overview', outlining the country's pathway to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070. The ambitious transition is projected to require a cumulative investment of approximately $22.7 trillion by 2070. This monumental financial undertaking underscores the scale of transformation needed across various sectors of the Indian economy.

The reports, released on February 9 and 10, 2026, emphasize that India can achieve its vision of 'Viksit Bharat' (developed India) by 2047 while simultaneously progressing towards its net-zero commitment. A significant portion of the required investment, over half, is earmarked for the power sector, reflecting its pivotal role in enabling economy-wide electrification. Specifically, the power sector alone will need cumulative investments of $14.23 trillion by 2070 under a net-zero scenario.

Projected Rise in Coal Consumption and Financing Challenges

A key finding of the Niti Aayog reports is the projection that India's coal consumption will continue to rise until 2047, even as the nation pursues its net-zero goals. This trajectory is attributed to the necessity of ensuring energy security and affordability during a period of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Despite this, the reports suggest that rising coal use does not preclude achieving net-zero, provided there are significant declines in energy intensity, improvements in efficiency, and a rapid expansion of clean electricity.

The financial requirements for this transition present a substantial challenge, with a projected financing gap of approximately $6.5 trillion. This gap is expected to be largely bridged through external sources, highlighting the need for international capital, particularly concessionary finance and grants, to support nascent clean technologies.

Strategic Pillars for a Green Transition

Niti Aayog CEO B.V.R. Subrahmanyam outlined five core pillars guiding India's net-zero strategy:

• Electrification of energy use.
• Greening and cleaning electricity generation.
• Controlling demand through Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment).
• Focusing on circularity and efficiency.
• Securing cheaper external finance.

The reports also highlight a unique opportunity for India, as approximately 85% of the country's infrastructure for 2047 is yet to be built. This allows for the integration of climate-friendly design from the outset, positioning India to potentially become a global leader in clean technologies.

Sectoral Transformations and Economic Outlook

Under the net-zero scenario, the share of fossil fuels in India's primary energy mix is projected to decrease significantly to 14% by 2070, down from 87% in 2025. Non-fossil fuel power generation is expected to reach 80-85% by 2050 and 100% by 2070. Renewables and nuclear power are anticipated to become the dominant sources of electricity generation.

The reports also delve into sectoral transformations:

• Transport: Decarbonization will involve a modal shift, the adoption of zero-emission vehicles, and clean technologies. Biofuels, particularly ethanol, are projected to see significant growth, with consumption reaching around 22 billion litres by mid-century.
• Industry: Key strategies include increased electrification, material efficiency, recycling, and the widespread adoption of green hydrogen.

Economically, India's GDP is projected to remain resilient, potentially reaching $30 trillion by 2047, even while pursuing its net-zero objectives. The Niti Aayog's comprehensive assessment aims to inform long-term policy planning, balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability.