Russia Intensifies Hybrid Attacks Across Europe, Targeting Critical Infrastructure and Democratic Processes

Escalation of Hybrid Warfare Tactics

The Russian Federation has dramatically intensified its hybrid attacks across Europe, posing significant threats to critical infrastructure, civilian populations, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Reports indicate a substantial surge in such activities, with some analyses showing a near tripling of attacks between 2023 and 2024, and a quadrupling of sabotage operations since 2023. These actions are part of a broader strategy to destabilize European governments, sow fear and division, and undermine international support for Ukraine.

Diverse Methods and Targets

Russia's hybrid warfare encompasses a wide array of tactics, extending beyond traditional military engagement. Key methods include:

• Sabotage: This involves physical attacks on infrastructure, such as arson, damage to undersea communication cables and pipelines, railway disruptions, and GPS signal interference. Notable incidents include the suspected damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline and data cable in October 2023, and multiple cuts to fiber-optic internet cables in the Baltic Sea in November 2024 and December 2024. There have also been arson attacks, including a fire at a London warehouse storing Ukrainian-bound equipment.
• Cyberattacks: Russian state-sponsored groups like APT28 and Sandworm have engaged in hacking operations, denial-of-service attacks, and electoral interference. Targets have included democratic institutions in Germany and the Czech Republic in 2024, as well as electoral processes in France.
• Disinformation and Political Interference: Extensive campaigns aim to manipulate public opinion, amplify societal divisions, and influence elections. Examples include efforts to sway the 2024 European Parliament elections and the use of platforms like TikTok for pro-Russian narratives.
• Weaponized Migration: Russia, in conjunction with the Belarusian regime, has been accused of using migration as a tool to strain EU cohesion.
• Space Operations: Suspected Russian intelligence operations involve spacecraft, such as Luch-1 and Luch-2, conducting close-proximity maneuvers near European geostationary satellites, raising concerns about signals intelligence collection and potential future interference.

These operations, initially concentrated in Scandinavia and the Baltic States, have expanded westward, with countries like France and Germany becoming new targets.

European and NATO Response

European Union leaders and NATO have strongly condemned Russia's actions, describing them as 'deliberate and systematic malicious activities.' NATO allies have expressed deep concern, emphasizing that these hybrid actions constitute a threat to Allied security. The EU has imposed sanctions on Russia's 'shadow fleet' and individuals linked to destabilizing actions. There is a concerted effort to strengthen resilience, enhance intelligence exchange, and improve the protection of critical infrastructure and cyber defenses.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and other officials have warned that Europe is 'not at war, but we are not at peace either.' German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl stated in November 2024 that Russia's extensive use of hybrid warfare increases the risk that NATO could consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause. However, challenges remain in attributing incidents definitively due to Russia's use of proxy operatives and 'disposable agents' recruited online, which allows for plausible deniability. Despite these challenges, European nations are urged to coordinate more effectively and invest in counterintelligence to counter the escalating threat.