Hungarian Opposition Tisza Party Extends Lead Over Ruling Fidesz in Latest Polls

Opposition Gains Momentum Ahead of 2026 Elections

Recent opinion polls in Hungary suggest a notable shift in the country's political landscape, with the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, reportedly increasing its lead over the long-reigning Fidesz party. These developments come as Hungary prepares for parliamentary elections scheduled for April 12, 2026.

According to a poll conducted by Median and released on January 14, 2026, the Tisza party now commands the support of 51% of decided voters, a slight increase from 50% in November. In contrast, Fidesz's support has reportedly declined to 39%, down from 40% two months prior. This places Tisza with a 12-point lead, an expansion from its 10-point advantage in November. Another survey published on the same day by the Idea Institute, based on data collected between December 31 and January 6, reported Tisza's support at 48% among decided voters, positioning it 10 points ahead of Fidesz, which stood at 38%.

The Rise of Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party

The Tisza party's ascent is largely attributed to its leader, Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who emerged as a prominent opposition figure in early 2024. Magyar, a lawyer and politician, resigned from all government-related positions in February 2024 amidst a presidential pardon scandal, subsequently denouncing Fidesz's governance and announcing his intention to form a new political movement in March 2024. He is now widely regarded as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's main rival for the upcoming parliamentary elections.

The Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza), originally founded in 2020 as a conservative entity, gained significant traction following Magyar's involvement. The party positions itself as center-right, advocating for anti-corruption measures and a pro-European stance. Key policy objectives include:

• Recovering €20 billion in EU funds withheld from Hungary due to alleged breaches of EU law by the Fidesz-led government.
• Joining the European Prosecutor's Office.
• Devolving authority to local governments.

Tisza has also joined the European People's Party (EPP) group, signaling its intent to challenge Fidesz's long-standing dominance.

Fidesz's Enduring Rule and Current Challenges

The ruling Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has been in power since 2010 and currently holds a majority in the National Assembly. However, the party has faced economic difficulties, including high inflation, and has reportedly struggled to regain voter support despite introducing various measures aimed at appealing to constituents. The upcoming April 2026 parliamentary elections present a significant challenge to Orbán's 16-year tenure, as he faces a formidable new challenger in Péter Magyar and the Tisza party.

Outlook Towards the 2026 Elections

The latest poll results underscore a dynamic political environment in Hungary. While Fidesz has historically maintained a strong lead, the emergence of the Tisza party and its growing support indicate a potential shift in voter sentiment. The ability of Tisza to draw voters, particularly from other opposition parties, suggests a consolidation of anti-Fidesz sentiment around Magyar's movement. As the 2026 parliamentary elections draw closer, the contest between the established Fidesz and the rising Tisza party is expected to intensify.