World Bank Affirms Montenegro's 2026 Economic Growth Forecast at 3.2%

Forecast Maintained Amidst Regional Trends

The World Bank has affirmed its projection for Montenegro's economic growth in 2026, holding the forecast steady at 3.2%. This announcement was made in the institution's January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, released on Tuesday, January 14, 2026. The figure for 2026 remains unchanged from the World Bank's earlier forecasts issued in October. The report also anticipates that Montenegro's economy will expand by 3.2% in 2027, following an estimated growth of 3.3% in 2025. Across the wider Western Balkans region, the World Bank projects an increase in economic growth to 3.1% in 2026, up from an estimated 2.7% in 2025.

Key Drivers of Montenegrin Growth

Montenegro's sustained economic momentum is primarily attributed to several internal factors. These include robust private consumption, a trend of rising real wages, and ongoing investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure and renewable energy. The nation's vital tourism sector continues to be a significant contributor, with revenues exceeding €1 billion in 2025. The Montenegrin government itself has set an average annual economic growth target of 3.2% from 2024 to 2026, largely driven by domestic demand.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite the stable growth forecast, Montenegro's economy, characterized as a small, open, and euroized system, faces inherent vulnerabilities. Its substantial reliance on tourism exposes it to external shocks and cyclical risks. The country is also grappling with an elevated current account deficit, which is expected to persist, necessitating continued reliance on external financing. Projections indicate that public debt could reach approximately 65.8% of GDP by 2027. Addressing these challenges will require a focus on:

• Ensuring fiscal sustainability
• Strengthening risk management frameworks
• Implementing targeted poverty-reduction policies

Inflation is anticipated to decline further to 2.3% in 2026. The World Bank emphasizes that Montenegro's progress towards European Union accession remains a crucial catalyst for driving necessary reforms and fostering long-term development.