Finnish President Stubb: Ukraine Peace Deal 'Closer Than Ever,' Final 5% Most Difficult

Negotiations Enter Critical Final Stage

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has indicated that a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is 'probably closer than we have been at any time of this war,' while cautioning that the 'most difficult 5%' of the negotiations are still ahead. Stubb made these remarks around December 21-22, 2025, during interviews, including one on Fox News.

The Finnish leader credited intensified diplomatic efforts, particularly those involving U.S. special envoys, for narrowing the differences between the warring parties.

U.S. Diplomacy and Western Unity Highlighted

President Stubb specifically acknowledged the continuous work of President Donald Trump's special envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who have been 'working around the clock' over recent weeks to facilitate discussions.

He also pointed to a significant display of unity among Western allies following recent talks in Berlin. Stubb outlined two key conclusions from these discussions:

• Europe, Ukraine, and the United States were united in their resolve to achieve a 'just and lasting peace.'
• The strong emphasis on the idea of security guarantees for Ukraine.

Stubb suggested that despite Russia's often hardline public rhetoric, its negotiators might exhibit more flexibility behind closed doors, describing such a contrast as 'quite typical in diplomacy.'

Challenges and Economic Pressure on Russia

The Finnish President underscored that the remaining '5%' of the peace process represents the most challenging aspects. He noted that the negotiations involve a 'balance of carrot and stick,' with economic pressures serving as a significant 'stick.'

Stubb highlighted Russia's current economic struggles, stating that the country is experiencing 'zero growth,' has 'run out of reserves,' and is grappling with 'high interest rates and high inflation,' with the situation 'not improving.' He further argued that U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil giants like Lukoil and Rosneft have proven particularly effective.

Stubb warned that if Russia were to 'flatly reject' a peace framework agreed upon by Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S., it would be 'time to hike up the sanctions,' asserting that 'they work.' However, he also cautioned that Russia's fundamental objective remains to 'basically destroy the existence of Ukraine.'

Outlook on Future Negotiations

The ongoing diplomatic efforts, including discussions on a 20-point peace framework, security guarantees, and a long-term reconstruction plan for Ukraine, suggest a critical juncture in the conflict. While optimism for a breakthrough is present, the complexity of the remaining issues, particularly territorial questions, indicates that the path to a comprehensive peace remains arduous.