China Unveils Economic Blueprint to 2030, Prioritizing Sustainable Growth and Tech Self-Reliance

Central Economic Conference Affirms 15th Five-Year Plan

Beijing's recent Central Economic Conference, which concluded on December 11, 2025, has affirmed support for China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), setting the strategic direction for the nation's economic and social development over the next half-decade. The plan, officially known as the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China, is scheduled for final approval by the National People's Congress in March 2026. The blueprint emphasizes a strategic pivot towards sustainable growth, advanced technology, and deepening reforms, with a target of around 5% GDP growth.

Pillars of High-Quality Development and Technological Autonomy

The 15th Five-Year Plan marks a significant shift towards high-quality, innovation-driven growth, moving away from a purely manufacturing-oriented economy. A central imperative is achieving technological self-reliance and innovation, with a strong focus on breakthroughs in core technologies such as semiconductors, advanced materials, biotechnology, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology, and 6G mobile communications. This involves strengthening domestic research and reducing dependence on foreign technologies. The plan also prioritizes building a modernized industrial system and reinforcing the real economy, including upgrading traditional industries like steel, chemicals, and machinery through digital transformation and automation, while cultivating emerging sectors such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and the low-altitude economy.

Emphasis on Green Initiatives and Domestic Demand

Environmental protection and the green economy are central pillars of the new plan. China aims to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 and build a cleaner, low-carbon energy system. Key initiatives include:

• Expanding renewable energies, such as solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear power.
• Improving energy efficiency in cities and manufacturing.
• Promoting electric vehicles and recycling systems.
• Advancing the 'Beautiful China Initiative', targeting cleaner air, water, and environmental ecosystems.

Simultaneously, the plan seeks to make domestic consumption the primary driver of economic growth. This involves expanding the domestic consumer market, raising personal incomes, and stimulating spending on high-quality goods and services.

Deepening Reforms and Economic Outlook

The 15th Five-Year Plan advocates for deepening comprehensive reforms to mature regulatory and legal structures and balance state and market influences. It also signals greater openness, particularly in the services sector, including areas like value-added telecommunication, biotechnology, wholly foreign-owned hospitals, education, and culture. The Central Economic Conference underscored a shift from stimulus-driven growth to focusing on structural capacity, innovation ecosystems, and institutional resilience. While the official GDP growth target for the entire 2026-2030 period will be formalized later, analysts suggest that an annual growth rate of around 5% for 2026 is considered necessary to meet longer-term development goals. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected China's economic growth at 4.5% for 2026.