Brazil Leads Non-OPEC Crude Oil Surge, Exceeding 4.0 MMbpd Production

Brazil at the Forefront of Non-OPEC Crude Oil Growth

The global crude oil market is poised for significant shifts, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting that Brazil, alongside Guyana and Argentina, will account for approximately half of the projected 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in global crude oil production in 2026. This surge underscores the growing influence of non-OPEC+ suppliers, particularly from deepwater and shale developments. Brazil's crude oil output notably exceeded 4.0 million barrels per day (MMbpd) for the first time in October 2025, marking a significant milestone in its production capabilities.

Driving Global Supply Balances

The EIA's December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) highlights that global crude oil production is expected to rise by 0.8 MMbpd in 2026. Of this, 0.4 MMbpd is anticipated to come from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. These three nations were also responsible for roughly 28% of the total global crude oil growth in 2025, a year that saw global output rebound by an estimated 2.2 MMbpd, with non-OPEC producers contributing about 1.7 MMbpd of that increase.

Brazil's Production Milestones and Future Outlook

Brazil's crude oil production experienced a significant boost in 2025, primarily driven by the start-up of new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels in deepwater developments. The country's monthly production surpassed 4.0 MMbpd in October 2025, a record attributed in part to the commencement of operations at Equinor's Bacalhau field and other capacity additions earlier in the year. The EIA projects that Brazilian crude production will average around 4.0 MMbpd in 2026, a forecast supported by the scheduled commissioning of two additional FPSOs in Petrobras' Buzios field.

The Critical Role of Pre-Salt Fields

The expansion of Brazil's oil production is heavily reliant on its vast pre-salt reserves, which are located in deep waters beneath a layer of salt under the ocean floor. In October 2025, pre-salt production alone accounted for 4.276 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 81.4% of the national total. Fields such as Buzios, Tupi, and Mero are key contributors to this output. Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, is a dominant player in these operations, with plans to install at least 14 new FPSOs between 2025 and 2030, many of which are destined for the Buzios field. These strategic investments in pre-salt assets are expected to maintain Brazil's competitive edge in oil production.

Regional Contributions to Non-OPEC Supply

Beyond Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are also making substantial contributions to non-OPEC crude oil growth. Guyana has demonstrated one of the fastest oil production growth rates globally, with output increasing nearly tenfold since 2020. Production averaged an estimated 750,000 bpd in 2025, driven by developments in the Stabroek Block, and exceeded 900,000 bpd in November 2025 following the Yellowtail project reaching full capacity. Argentina's crude production growth is primarily fueled by the Vaca Muerta shale play, with output projected to rise from approximately 740,000 bpd in 2025 to around 810,000 bpd in 2026. The combined growth from these three South American nations is set to remain a critical factor in shaping global supply balances.