China-Japan Tensions Escalate Amidst Naval Drills and Taiwan Stance

Radar Incident Fuels Military Tensions

Diplomatic tensions between China and Japan have reached a critical point following a series of military maneuvers and sharp exchanges over the status of Taiwan. A particularly alarming incident occurred on December 6, 2025, when Chinese J-15 fighter jets, operating from the aircraft carrier Liaoning, allegedly locked their fire-control radar onto Japanese F-15s near the Okinawa islands, specifically in the vicinity of the Miyako Strait.

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi vowed a 'calm and resolute' response to the alleged incident, which the Japanese Ministry of Defense described as 'dangerous and extremely regrettable'. The incident took place during extensive Chinese 'far-sea training' that involved approximately 100 fighter jet take-offs from the Liaoning. China, however, denied Japan's accusations, counter-claiming that Japanese forces had 'maliciously monitored and harassed' its military exercises.

Japan's Stance on Taiwan Draws Beijing's Ire

The escalation in military activity coincides with heightened diplomatic friction stemming from Japan's increasingly explicit stance on Taiwan. In November 2025, Prime Minister Takaichi stated in parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a 'survival-threatening situation' for Japan. She suggested this scenario might trigger Japanese military involvement under the Legislation for Peace and Security, allowing for collective self-defense. This statement marked a significant departure from previous Japanese policy, which had maintained deliberate ambiguity on the issue.

Beijing reacted strongly to Takaichi's remarks, condemning them as an interference in China's internal affairs and a violation of its 'red line'. China lodged 'solemn complaints and protests' with Japan and initiated retaliatory measures, including issuing a travel advisory for Chinese citizens visiting Japan and imposing restrictions on Japanese seafood imports. A diplomatic row further erupted when Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, made threatening comments against Prime Minister Takaichi on social media, prompting a protest from Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara.

Broader Military Posturing in the Region

Beyond the radar incident, China has demonstrated an increased military presence in the region. In December 2025, China deployed an unusually large flotilla of over 100 naval vessels across East Asian waters, from the Yellow Sea to the Western Pacific, in what analysts described as its 'largest maritime show of force to date'. This was widely interpreted as a direct response to Japan's pro-Taiwan statements and Taiwan's increased defense budget.

Earlier in the year, in August 2025, China and Russia conducted joint naval drills, 'Joint Sea-2025', in the Sea of Japan near Vladivostok, involving submarine rescue, anti-submarine, air defense, and maritime combat operations. In June 2025, Chinese aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong also entered Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), further contributing to regional tensions. In response to these developments, Japan conducted joint military drills with the United States over the Sea of Japan on December 10, 2025.

Outlook for Sino-Japanese Relations

The recent events underscore a deepening 'downward spiral' in Japan-China relations, characterized by increasing military posturing and a shift towards a 'managed rivalry'. The United States has also voiced its concern, stating that China's actions are 'not conducive to regional peace and stability'. China continues to adhere to its 'one-China principle', asserting that Taiwan is an 'inalienable part of China' and reserving the right to use force for reunification. Taiwan's President William Lai has called on China to demonstrate responsibility amidst these escalating tensions.