Met Éireann and Maynooth University Study Confirms Climate Change Link to Increased Flood Risk in Southeast Ireland

Climate Change Intensifies Irish Rainfall, Doubling Flood Risk

A recent rapid attribution study conducted by Maynooth University, with support from Met Éireann climate scientists, has established a direct link between human-caused climate change and the increased magnitude and likelihood of heavy rainfall events in southeast Ireland. The study specifically examined the rainfall associated with Storm Claudia in November 2025, which contributed to significant flooding in the region.

Key Findings on Rainfall Magnitude and Likelihood

The comprehensive analysis revealed several critical findings regarding the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns. Researchers found that the magnitude of rainfall during the two-day event associated with Storm Claudia increased by nearly 12 percent compared to a pre-industrial climate. Similarly, 30-day rainfall events, akin to those experienced in autumn 2025, showed an increase in magnitude of nearly 7 percent.

Furthermore, the study concluded that both the two-day and 30-day heavy rainfall events are now twice as likely to occur as they would have been in a pre-industrial climate. This heightened probability underscores the significant influence of global warming on Ireland's weather patterns.

Context of Recent Flooding and Antecedent Conditions

The study highlighted that the intense rainfall during Storm Claudia followed several months of unusually wet conditions, which left soils saturated and rivers highly responsive to further precipitation. For instance, September 2025 recorded 144% of its average rainfall, and October 2025 saw 123%. These prolonged wet spells created an environment highly susceptible to flooding when Storm Claudia brought heavy downpours to areas including Dublin, Wicklow, and Wexford. Hydrometric data indicated that the storm led to significant river flooding in Wexford and Wicklow, with several gauges recording their highest or second-highest peaks on record.

The 30-day rainfall analysis encompassed a broader area, including Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Louth, Meath, Wexford, and Wicklow, all of which feed into the south-eastern catchments.

Scientific Basis and Future Projections

This rapid attribution study is part of the WASITUS project, an initiative aimed at advancing event attribution capabilities for Ireland in collaboration with the World Weather Attribution team. The project is funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and Met Éireann, and carried out by the ICARUS Climate Research Centre at Maynooth University.

Paul Moore, a Climatologist at Met Éireann, explained that a warmer atmosphere has the capacity to hold more moisture, thereby increasing the potential for heavier rainfall during such events. Dr. Claire Bergin from Maynooth University added, 'With further global warming we can expect the magnitude of rainfall to increase, with more rain falling during events like this.' The research projects that further global warming will continue to increase the intensity of similar rainfall events in Ireland, with notable increases expected at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C of global warming. Under a scenario of 3°C global warming, similar heavy-rainfall events could occur as frequently as every one to two years.