Russia Escalates Military and Covert Operations in Moldova's Transnistria Region

Increased Russian Activity Reported in Transnistria

Recent intelligence reports indicate that Russia is significantly ramping up its operations within Transnistria, a breakaway region internationally recognized as part of Moldova. This surge in activity includes heightened mobilization efforts, the production of drones, and the establishment of training centers for drone operators. Sources from Ukrainian military intelligence suggest these actions are designed to destabilize Moldova and create a new point of tension near Ukraine's southern border.

Mobilization and Drone Production Underway

According to Ukrainian intelligence, mobilization measures have been intensified within the self-proclaimed 'Transnistrian Moldovan Republic' (PMR). This involves the calling up of reservists to military formations and the retrieval of weapons from storage. Concurrently, drone production facilities have been established in Transnistria, alongside centers dedicated to training drone operators. These developments are seen as a strategic move by the Kremlin to strengthen its presence in the region.

Strategic Objectives: Destabilization and Diversion

The intensified Russian operations are reportedly aimed at several strategic objectives. Primarily, they seek to destabilize Moldova and create a flashpoint that could divert Ukrainian resources away from ongoing conflicts. Intelligence sources also indicate that Russian intelligence agents are being deployed to Transnistria. Their mission includes 'amplifying crisis phenomena,' conducting information operations, instigating provocations, and carrying out sabotage activities. The proximity of Transnistria's capital, Tiraspol, to Odesa City (approximately 80 kilometers) raises concerns about potential drone strikes on Ukrainian territory.

Political Context and Energy Dependence

The current focus on Transnistria is also linked to the upcoming 'PMR presidential elections' in 2026. Russia's objectives include re-establishing Tiraspol's dependence on free Russian gas, enhancing the image of pro-Russian leaders, and covertly increasing its military contingent in the region. Transnistria has historically been critically dependent on Russian gas. In early 2025, when Gazprom halted supplies, Moldova's authorities intervened, with Moldovagaz supplying the critical energy resource, thereby preventing an energy collapse in the region. Approximately 1,500 Russian troops are currently stationed in Transnistria. Meanwhile, Moldova, in partnership with the European Union and the United States, is actively developing a plan for the reintegration of Transnistria.