Russia's Foreign Trade Surplus Declines to $115.4 Billion in Jan-Oct 2025

Overview of the Decline

The Russian Federation's foreign trade surplus experienced a notable reduction, falling by 7.8% year-on-year to $115.4 billion during the period of January to October 2025. This figure was reported by the Federal Customs Service (FCS), indicating a significant shift in the country's trade dynamics. This follows a broader trend, as the FCS had previously reported Russia's trade surplus falling by 18.4% year-on-year to $63.9 billion in the first half of 2025 alone.

Contributing Factors to the Narrowing Surplus

Several factors have contributed to the narrowing of Russia's foreign trade surplus. On the export side, lower global commodity prices and a softer demand from key trading partners, such as China, have played a role. The ongoing international sanctions have also continued to exert pressure on Russian exports, affecting various sectors. For instance, exports of mineral products saw a 16.2% year-on-year decrease in the first half of 2025. Furthermore, agricultural exports, excluding textiles, declined by 10.3% to $31.5 billion from January to October 2025, compared to the same period last year.

Conversely, import dynamics have also influenced the surplus. While overall imports have shown mixed trends, some categories have seen increases. For example, imports of food products and agricultural raw materials rose by 14.2% to $35 billion in January-October 2025. Subdued domestic demand and the lingering effects of Western sanctions have limited access to certain foreign goods and technologies, yet strategic imports, such as warfare and technological imports, are projected to grow by 8% in 2025. Issues related to payment for imports and restrictions by some Chinese transport companies on shipping dual-use goods to Russia have also been noted.

Diversification and Reorientation of Trade

In response to geopolitical shifts and sanctions, Russia has intensified its efforts to diversify its export base and reorient its trade flows. The country aims to reduce its dependence on energy exports by boosting non-energy exports, targeting over $149 billion in 2025 and potentially reaching $250 billion by 2030. Non-primary, non-energy (NPNE) exports accounted for over 12% of Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first half of 2025, with a 6% year-on-year increase to $111.4 billion in January-September 2025.

A significant reorientation of trade towards 'friendly countries' has been observed. Exports to nations such as China, India, Turkey, Belarus, Egypt, Brazil, the UAE, and Algeria have shown collective growth, with non-resource, non-energy exports to these countries increasing by over 19% in the first seven months of 2025. This strategic pivot aims to mitigate the impact of reduced trade with Western economies.

Economic Implications

The decline in the foreign trade surplus highlights the complex economic environment facing Russia. While a surplus generally indicates a country is exporting more than it imports, a significant reduction can reflect challenges in export markets or increased import demand. The interplay of global energy prices, the effectiveness of sanctions, and Russia's ongoing efforts to adapt its economy and trade relationships will continue to shape its foreign trade balance in the coming periods. The Central Bank of Russia's tight monetary policy and the strengthening of the ruble have also been cited as factors influencing trade dynamics.