Brazil's 2025/26 Coffee Production Forecast at 63 Million Bags Amidst Mixed Outlook

Overall Production Outlook

Brazil's total coffee production for the 2025/26 market year (July to June) is currently forecast at 63 million 60-kilogram bags. This represents an approximate 3% decrease from the previous season's output, according to the latest semi-annual report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The revised projection is a reduction from an earlier FAS estimate of 65 million bags. This mixed outlook is characterized by a significant decline in Arabica coffee production, largely offset by a record-high yield for Robusta coffee.

Challenges for Arabica Production

The reduction in the overall forecast is primarily driven by a steep cut to Arabica coffee production, which is projected at 38 million bags for 2025/26. This figure is more than 13% lower than the previous season. Several factors have contributed to this downturn:

• Adverse Weather: Below-average rainfall, heat stress, and irregular rainfall have impacted trees in key Arabica-producing states such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo, particularly during the crucial flowering period.
• Biennial Cycle: The 2025/26 season also represents the 'off-year' in Brazil's biennial production cycle for Arabica, which naturally leads to lower yields.
• Drought and High Temperatures: Severe drought and extremely high temperatures experienced in late 2024 and early 2025 have further harmed development and yield, especially in younger plantations.

Robusta Reaches Record Highs

In contrast to Arabica, Robusta coffee production is expected to reach a new record high in Brazil, forecast at approximately 25 million bags for 2025/26. This marks a substantial 19% increase from the estimated 21 million bags in 2024/25. This robust performance is attributed to:

• Favorable Weather: Robusta crops in key producing states like Espírito Santo and Bahia have benefited from favorable weather conditions.
• Widespread Irrigation: Extensive use of irrigation systems in these regions has contributed to the proper development of fruits and higher yields.
• Producer Investment: High coffee prices in recent years have encouraged growers to invest in new plantings and farm improvements, further boosting Robusta output.

Broader Market Implications and Other Forecasts

Despite the overall decrease in total production, export revenues are rising due to elevated global prices and growing demand for Robusta. Total Brazilian coffee exports are expected to fall to 40.75 million bags, down from an estimated 44.75 million in 2024/25. Domestic coffee consumption in Brazil for 2025/26 is maintained at 22.28 million bags, though higher domestic prices may reshape future behavior.

It is important to note that other Brazilian agencies offer slightly different forecasts. The National Supply Company (CONAB) most recently estimated the 2025/26 crop at about 55.3 million bags, while the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) is near 56.8 million bags. These variations are common due to different survey and modeling methodologies employed by the agencies.