Iran's Water Crisis Deepens, Threatening Tehran with Shortages and Evacuation

A Nation Thirsty: Iran's Escalating Water Crisis

Iran is currently experiencing its most severe water crisis in over six decades, a situation that has evolved into a profound political and security challenge for the nation. The capital, Tehran, home to approximately 15 million residents, is facing unprecedented water shortages, with authorities implementing rationing and even issuing warnings of potential evacuation if conditions do not improve.

Reservoirs supplying Tehran are at critically low capacities, some reportedly below 5%, and the Karaj Dam, a key source for the capital, is at just 8% capacity. This acute emergency is the culmination of decades of flawed policies, ambitious agricultural goals, and a prolonged drought exacerbated by climate change.

Root Causes: Climate, Mismanagement, and Policy Failures

The multifaceted nature of Iran's water crisis stems from a combination of environmental factors and human-induced issues:

• Climate Change and Drought: Iran, an arid and semi-arid country, has seen precipitation levels drop significantly, with some regions experiencing a 42% decrease below the long-term average in rainfall. The country is in its sixth consecutive year of drought, and temperatures are projected to rise by 2.6°C with a 35% decrease in precipitation in coming decades.
• Inefficient Agriculture: More than 90% of Iran's water is allocated to agriculture, much of which is lost due to inefficient irrigation practices. The push for food self-sufficiency has led to over-extraction of groundwater and the cultivation of water-intensive crops.
• Dam Construction and Groundwater Depletion: Decades of extensive dam construction, often driven by political motives rather than environmental assessments, have disrupted natural ecosystems and contributed to the drying of major wetlands and lakes, such as Lake Urmia. Simultaneously, over-extraction has severely depleted groundwater reserves, with Tehran experiencing land subsidence at a rate of up to 25 cm per year.
• Policy and Governance: Critics point to mismanagement, a fragmented water governance system, and a lack of modern technology as significant contributors. Some analysts refer to a 'water mafia' involving political, military, and business officials who have profited from dam projects and water transfers.

Tehran on the Brink: Rationing and Evacuation Warnings

The situation in Tehran is particularly dire. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that key reservoirs are far below typical seasonal variations. Authorities have begun cutting off water at night in the capital and have imposed water rationing in some neighborhoods. President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that if sufficient rain does not fall, formal rationing would begin, with evacuation as the next step. He has even suggested that Iran has 'no choice' but to consider moving the capital due to the water crisis.

Other major cities are also severely affected. Mashhad, the country's second-largest city, has seen its reservoirs drop to less than 3% capacity, putting 4 million people at risk. The drying up of rivers like the Zayandeh Rud in Isfahan has led to land subsidence, cracking buildings and threatening historical monuments.

Political and Security Ramifications

The water crisis has profound political and security implications, fueling social unrest and protests across the country. Water scarcity has historically triggered demonstrations, notably in Khuzestan province in 2021 and 2025, and among farmers in Isfahan. These protests are increasingly viewed by the government as national security threats.

The crisis also exacerbates transboundary tensions, particularly with neighboring countries like Afghanistan over shared water resources such as the Helmand River. The government's inability to prevent persistent shortages, combined with visible service failures, amplifies public frustration and risks wider unrest.

Government Response and Future Challenges

In response to the deepening crisis, the Iranian government is exploring various measures. Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi has stated that Iran is considering importing water, both physically and 'virtually' by importing water-intensive products. Officials are urging citizens to conserve water and have initiated projects, such as a new pipe system around Tehran, expected to be completed by the end of 2024.

However, experts emphasize that these are often short-term solutions. Long-term sustainability requires structural reforms in water management, agricultural policy, and a shift towards a conservationist mindset. Without addressing the root causes and implementing transparent, science-based frameworks, Iran faces continued depletion of its vital water resources and heightened social and political instability.