Experts Warn US Risks Losing Moon Race and Space Superiority to China

Congressional Hearings Highlight Growing Concerns

During recent hearings before the US House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology and the Senate Commerce Committee, experts issued stark warnings regarding the United States' position in the burgeoning space race with China. The consensus among witnesses was that the US risks losing its long-held space superiority, particularly concerning lunar exploration and potential future settlements.

Jared Isaacman, President Trump's nominee to lead NASA, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, 'This is not the time for delay, but for action, because if we fall behind – if we make a mistake – we may never catch up.' Similarly, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has repeatedly warned that 'those who lead in space lead on Earth,' underscoring the geopolitical implications of lunar dominance.

China's Ambitious Lunar Timeline

China has publicly declared its intent to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030 and to establish a permanent international lunar research station by 2035. This ambitious timeline is supported by significant progress in developing critical hardware, including the Long March 10 rocket and the Lanyue lunar lander. China's space program has already achieved notable milestones, such as landing and operating spacecraft on Mars and the far side of the Moon, and maintaining a continuously crewed space station in low Earth orbit.

Experts like Michael Griffin, former NASA Administrator and President of LogiQ Inc., noted China's 'sustained commitment' to its lunar goals, contrasting it with perceived inconsistencies in US efforts.

US Artemis Program Faces Delays and Challenges

In contrast, the United States' Artemis program, which aims to return American astronauts to the Moon, has encountered multiple delays. The Artemis II mission, intended to send astronauts around the Moon, has been pushed back to early 2025, while the Artemis III mission, which would see humans land on the lunar surface, is now targeted for late 2026, with some reports suggesting 2027 or even 2028. These postponements are attributed to bureaucratic hurdles, technical issues, and funding uncertainties.

Jim Bridenstine, another former NASA Administrator, testified that it is 'highly unlikely' the US will land on the Moon before China, citing the complexities and delays within the Artemis program, particularly concerning the development of SpaceX's Starship, which is crucial for lunar landings.

The Stakes of Lunar Dominance

The competition extends beyond simply planting flags. Concerns were raised about China potentially claiming resource-rich areas on the Moon, such as water ice at the south pole, and establishing 'keep-out zones.' NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has warned that China's 'so-called civilian space program is a military program,' suggesting potential dual-use capabilities. Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at Gatestone Institute, further cautioned that if China were to control the Moon, it could weaponize it and exert control over cis-lunar space, with significant implications for Earth's national security.

Lawmakers and experts alike stressed that the nation that establishes a commanding presence on the lunar surface and in lunar orbit will significantly influence global communications, diplomacy, technology, and resource utilization for future space missions.