China Expresses Concern Over Deepening Asia-Pacific Defense Alliances

Beijing's Apprehension Over Regional Defense Ties

A prominent Chinese think tank has articulated concerns that the escalating defense cooperation among India, South Korea, and Australia could undermine regional stability and serve as a strategy to contain China within the Indo-Pacific. Analysts suggest that Beijing views these burgeoning alliances as a concerted effort to encircle China, particularly amidst anxieties about a potential security vacuum should the United States reduce its military presence in the region.

Key Developments in Trilateral Cooperation

Recent months have seen significant advancements in defense collaboration between the three nations:

• India and South Korea: The Indian naval frigate INS Sahyadri participated in its inaugural joint military exercise with South Korea in Busan on October 13. This exercise, described by India's Ministry of Defence as 'the culmination of years of discussions and planning,' included both harbor maneuvers and various sea drills.
• India and Australia: Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visited Canberra on October 9 for the inaugural Australia–India Defence Ministers' Dialogue with his counterpart, Richard Marles. During this meeting, both nations reaffirmed their commitment to fostering regional cooperation to maintain a 'free, open, peaceful, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.' Three key pacts were signed, covering the sharing of classified information, mutual submarine search and rescue cooperation, and the establishment of joint staff talks.
• Australia and South Korea: These two nations are actively enhancing their defense collaboration, focusing on addressing technology gaps and exploring synergies in areas such as uncrewed systems and long-range strike capabilities. The second ROK-Australia Defense Conference was held in Canberra in mid-August.

Multilateral Exercises and China's Interpretation

The deepening bilateral ties are also reflected in broader multilateral engagements. Guam recently hosted navies from the U.S., Japan, India, Australia, and South Korea for exercises, including the 29th iteration of Quad Exercise Malabar from November 10-18. These exercises featured advanced maneuvering scenarios and anti-submarine warfare, further highlighting the interconnectedness of these defense strategies.

The China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a government-backed foreign policy think tank, specifically warned on October 16 that increased defense collaboration between India and Australia had become 'a new variable that cannot be ignored amid shifting geopolitical dynamics' and could 'threaten regional peace.' Beijing is expected to interpret these collective moves as part of a broader 'encirclement strategy' led by the U.S. and supported by its regional allies, potentially leading to increased tensions in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea.

Regional Security Dynamics

The Indo-Pacific region is currently experiencing a strategic turning point, characterized by intensified rivalry between the United States and China. In response to China's growing assertiveness, countries in the region are increasingly reinforcing their military capabilities and forging partnerships to counterbalance perceived threats.